Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

基于2015年夏季对中国南海中沙群岛的黄岩岛和西沙群岛的永兴岛、七连屿、东岛、浪花礁、北礁、华光礁、盘石屿、玉琢礁等9个岛礁区的综合科学调查和采样，重点研究了重金属元素在礁区海水中的分布情况。结果表明：1）中、西沙海域的这9个岛礁区海水中重金属铜、铅、锌、镉、铬、砷的平均质量浓度分别为1.309、1.702、2.831、0.056、0.204、0.272 μg/L，重金属整体水平较低，并以锌、铅、铜为主，质量浓度达所测重金属元素总量的92％，仅部分站点的铅元素质量浓度高于国家一类海水水质标准。2）在分布上大致呈现东部岛礁区高于西部岛礁区的特点，环礁潟湖与礁坡的海水重金属含量具有差异性，礁坡水体的铜、铅、锌、镉含量均高于潟湖，砷低于潟湖，这种差异可能与潟湖水体相对封闭有关。3）影响中、西沙岛礁区海水重金属分布的环境因子，主要包括陆源输入、大气沉降、环流等，其中陆源主要影响锌，大气沉降对铅作用明显，环流影响局部水平。4）采用权重修正内梅罗污染指数进行水质综合评价，得出中、西沙岛礁区域总体处于较清洁水平，海水重金属含量没有达到影响珊瑚生长的水平，但是铜元素对珊瑚的生长可能存在潜在危害。

Traditional approaches to age-depth modeling typically assume no uncertainty for the depth value of dated intervals. However, such an assumption may not be fully valid in the case of poor coring recovery or significant sediment deformation, as well as in the case of a large subsampling interval. In consideration of these issues, we present a new age-depth modeling routine, Undatable, which includes uncertainty in both age and depth. Undatable uses Bayesian radiocarbon (C-14) calibration software (MatCal) and a deterministic approach with a positive sediment accumulation rate assumed a priori which, combined with efficient programming practices, allows for the rapid production (in a matter of seconds in many cases) of age-depth models for multiple types of geological archives. Undatable has so far been successfully applied to coral archives, as well as sediment archives from estuarine, lacustrine, and deep-sea environments. Through the inclusion of a bootstrapping option, the software performs particularly well in the case of a large scatter in age-depth constraints by expanding the uncertainty envelope of the age-depth model. Unlike other deterministic models, increasing the density of age-depth constraints results in increased precision in Undatable, even at centennial scale, thus emulating the results of probabilistic models. In addition to the code itself, we also provide an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) that allows users to experiment with multiple age-depth model settings to investigate the sensitivity of a given data set to multiple parameters.

热带气旋活动以及由此产生的风暴潮和强降雨对南海及周边沿海地区社会经济构成巨大威胁。对器测记录之前全新世热带气旋的研究有助于准确预测全球变暖背景下热带气旋活动的变化趋势。本文利用南沙群岛安乐礁潟湖沉积物重建了小冰期以来准年分辨率的热带气旋活动, 共识别28个风暴事件层。研究表明, 小冰期以来, 南沙群岛安乐礁热带气旋活动在年代际到百年尺度上频繁变化, 发育两个主要的风暴活跃期。在小冰期早期(AD 1471—1620)经历了最为强烈的风暴活跃期, 另一个风暴活跃期位于现代暖期的AD 1930—1960, 风暴活动虽有所加强, 但明显低于小冰期早期。与同期永暑礁重建结果的对比表明, 热带气旋活动存在明显的时空差异性, 更多来自相近区域的高分辨率风暴记录可有效降低古风暴活动重建的不确定性, 提高重建记录的准确度。

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and the resultant storm surges and heavy rainfall have posed huge socio-economic threats to the coastal areas of the South China Sea (SCS) and its surrounding areas. Holocene TCs studies before instrumental record help to accurately predict trends in TCs activity in the context of global warming. Here, we presented a new sub-annually resolved paleostorm record from the Anle reef lagoon sediments of the Nansha Islands in the southern SCS since the relative cold Little Ice Age (LIA) and a total of 28 storm event layers were identified. The new reconstruction indicates that the site has witnessed frequent TCs variations on a decadal to centennial-scale since the LIA, and two main storm active periods have been developed. The most intense storm activity period occurred in the early LIA (AD 1471~1620), and the other relatively active period was witnessed in the Current Warm Period (CWP) of AD 1930~1960. Although the storm activity in CWP was strengthened, it was significantly lower than that in the early LIA. Regional comparison with the storm reconstruction record of the Yongshu Reef during the same period reveals distinct spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the southern SCS. More high-resolution storm records from similar or adjacent regions could effectively reduce the uncertainty of storm reconstructions and increase the accuracy of reconstructed records.

位于南沙群岛永暑礁西南小澙湖的南永4井岩芯柱中含多层珊瑚枝和珊瑚砾石的堆积,反映了突发性风暴事件造成的珊瑚碎屑快速搬运和堆积.全新世晚期约4 000 aBP以来,澙湖珊瑚砾堆积记录了1 400～870BC、660BC～390AD、600～770AD和940-1992AD 4个主要的风暴事件频发时期,并且风暴的强度呈阶段性增强.风暴事件还表现出千年和百年尺度的周期性波动,具有1 280 a、370 a、210～230 a、140～150 a和90 a的准周期,与全新世气候环境的周期性变化相对应,很大程度上受

位于南沙群岛永暑礁西南小澙湖的南永4井岩芯柱中含多层珊瑚枝和珊瑚砾石的堆积,反映了突发性风暴事件造成的珊瑚碎屑快速搬运和堆积.全新世晚期约4 000 aBP以来,澙湖珊瑚砾堆积记录了1 400～870BC、660BC～390AD、600～770AD和940-1992AD 4个主要的风暴事件频发时期,并且风暴的强度呈阶段性增强.风暴事件还表现出千年和百年尺度的周期性波动,具有1 280 a、370 a、210～230 a、140～150 a和90 a的准周期,与全新世气候环境的周期性变化相对应,很大程度上受

Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane-climate interactions on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Coarse-grained, hurricane-induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse-grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti-phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.

The southern coast of Hainan Island, China, is one of the most frequently hit areas of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific regions. Although some of the extreme typhoon events were known in historical times, quantitative information on the timing and magnitude of paleo-typhoon events in this coastal area remains rare. In the present study, a large number of coral reef boulders were found on the Xiaodonghai reef platform, on the south coast of Hainan Island. Morphometric analysis of the boulders shows an exponentially fining landward trend, indicating a storm origin; a wave-induced current velocity of 2.41–5.71 m/s during the storm events is required to transport the boulders that were originally situated outside the reef edge. Based on the U/Th and 14C dating for the age-indicating samples taken from the boulders, seven major periods with intense typhoon activities were identified for the last 4,000 years, i.e., 1800–1500 BCE, 1200–900 BCE, 50–120 CE, 550–800 CE, 900–1000 CE, 1350–1900 CE, and 1910–2000 CE. A comparison with the regional typhoon records in terms of climatic parameters in the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea regions indicates that the longitudinal variations of intense typhoon frequency were mainly controlled by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), dominantly modulated by the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Because of the future warming climate, there will be a trend of enhanced typhoon risk for the southern Hainan Island coasts.

The relative importance of north-south migrations of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) versus El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its associated Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) variability for past hydrological change in the western tropical Pacific is unclear. Here we show that north-south ITCZ migration was not the only mechanism of tropical Pacific hydrologic variability during the last millennium, and that PWC variability profoundly influenced tropical Pacific hydrology. We present hydrological reconstructions from Cattle Pond, Dongdao Island of the South China Sea, where multi-decadal rainfall and downcore grain size variations are correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index during the instrumental era. Our downcore grain size reconstructions indicate that this site received less precipitation during relatively warm periods, AD 1000-1400 and AD 1850-2000, compared with the cool period (AD 1400-1850). Including our new reconstructions in a synthesis of tropical Pacific records results in a spatial pattern of hydrologic variability that implicates the PWC.