温带气旋在浙江海域入海发展形成的瞬时大风和大浪常常会造成船只倾覆、人员伤亡等灾情。本文采用WRF中尺度数值模式对一次入海温带气旋过程进行3个试验分析,包括试验一(不同化任何资料)、试验二(将未经质量控制的云迹风资料全部放入模式同化)和试验三(将经质量控制以后的云迹风资料放入模式同化)。通过对高度场和风场等的模拟,并与实况对比,表明将经质量控制的云迹风资料放入模式可以较大程度改进温带气旋的模拟结果,为提高影响浙江海域的温带气旋预报的准确率提供一定参考。
Abstract
There are extreme gusts and waves when the developing extratropical cyclones (DECS) enters the Zhejiang coastal waters, which can bring about shipwrecks and fatalities. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model system which is typically used in the regional meso-scale model prediction, was used to simulate a DECS process. Three experiments were conducted: experiment one (without assimilation data); experiment two (with assimilation of cloud drift wind data (CDWD), quality control was not conducted to the CDWD) and experiment three (with assimilation of CDWD, quality control was conducted to the CDWD). The comparison of the three experiments shows that including the assimilation of CDWD, they can have positive impact on DECS prediction. The results of experiment three are very similar to those of actual observation, therefore it can improve the prediction accuracy about the DECS which influence the Zhejiang coastal waters.
关键词
温带气旋 /
云迹风 /
数值模拟 /
预报
Key words
extratropical cyclone /
cloud drift wind /
numerical simulation /
forecasting
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基金
国家公益性行业科研专项资助(YHY201005033)
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