COSMIC掩星资料同化对台风“天兔”预报影响的试验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2017.03.002

海洋学研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 9-19.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2017.03.002

COSMIC掩星资料同化对台风“天兔”预报影响的试验

邹逸航¹, 马旭林², 姜胜^2,3, 何海伦¹, 郭欢²

1.国家海洋局第二海洋研究所, 浙江杭州310012;
2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210044;
3.浙江省气象台, 浙江杭州 310017

收稿日期:2016-12-26 修回日期:2017-03-01 发布日期:2022-11-18
作者简介:邹逸航(1992-),女,内蒙古赤峰市人,主要从事台风研究。E-mail:zouyihang@yeah.net
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目资助(41476021);“全球变化与海气相互作用”专项国际合作项目资助(GASI-IPOVAI-04);浙江省自然科学基金项目资助(LR15D060001)

Effect of COSMIC occultation data assimilation on prediction of typhoon Usagi

ZOU Yi-hang¹, MA Xu-lin², JIANG Sheng^2,3, HE Hai-lun¹, GUO Huan²

1. Second Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Hangzhou 310012, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017, China

Received:2016-12-26 Revised:2017-03-01 Published:2022-11-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 台风数值预报的关键之一在于给定准确的模式初始场。本文使用气象、电离层和气候星座观测系统(COSMIC)的卫星资料,通过资料同化技术改善数值天气预报模式的初始场,进而评估数据同化技术对台风(或热带气旋)预报的改善效果。使用我国自主研发的数值天气预报模式,对1319号台风“天兔”进行模拟试验,对温度场、湿度场、涡度散度场及假相当位温场进行诊断分析。试验结果表明,与同化常规探空资料相比,COSMIC资料的同化可减小模式预报台风路径误差,台风附近降水落区更为集中。研究评估了掩星资料同化对模式的改进作用,并能为台风预报技术和防灾减灾提供参考。

关键词: 台风数值模拟, GRAPES模式, 资料同化, COSMIC掩星资料

Abstract: A key factor of numerical typhoon prediction models is the initial field. COSMIC(Constellation Observation System of Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) satellite data assimilation was used to improve the initial condition, and its effect on improving tropical storms(or typhoon) prediction was evaluated. Employing the GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)which was developed independently by China, typhoon Usagi(1319) was simulated. Analyses are made based on the various outputs, such as temperature, humidity, vorticity, divergence and pseudo-equivalent temperature. The results show that COSMIC data, comparing to the radiosonde data, can enhance the ability of typhoon path and precipitation forecast assimilation. So this research indicates that assimilation of satellite data contributes to the improvement of GRAPES model as well as provides an example on preventing typhoon disasters and reducing damages.

Key words: typhoon numerical simulation, GRAPES model, data assimilation, COSMIC occultation data

中图分类号:

P405

邹逸航, 马旭林, 姜胜, 何海伦, 郭欢. COSMIC掩星资料同化对台风“天兔”预报影响的试验[J]. 海洋学研究, 2017, 35(3): 9-19.

ZOU Yi-hang, MA Xu-lin, JIANG Sheng, HE Hai-lun, GUO Huan. Effect of COSMIC occultation data assimilation on prediction of typhoon Usagi[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2017, 35(3): 9-19.

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COSMIC掩星资料同化对台风“天兔”预报影响的试验

Effect of COSMIC occultation data assimilation on prediction of typhoon Usagi

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