基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

海洋学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 43-57.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例

谭亦杨¹^,²^,³(), 白雁¹^,²^,³^,^*(), 李腾²^,³, 郑芯瑜¹^,²^,³, 张银雪⁴, 张异凡¹^,²^,³

1.上海交通大学海洋学院,上海 200030
2.自然资源部第二海洋研究所,浙江杭州 310012
3.卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室,浙江杭州 310012
4.河海大学海洋学院,江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2024-01-12 修回日期:2024-02-01 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2025-02-08
通讯作者: 白雁
作者简介:*白雁(1979—),女,研究员,主要从事卫星海洋遥感和海洋碳循环遥感研究,E-mail:baiyan@sio.org.cn。
谭亦杨(1998—),女,湖北省武汉市人,主要从事南极海洋环境遥感研究,E-mail:yiyangtan@sjtu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家海洋局极地考察办公室项目(IRASCC-01-01-03A);国家自然科学基金(42176177)

Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea

TAN Yiyang¹^,²^,³(), BAI Yan¹^,²^,³^,^*(), LI Teng²^,³, ZHENG Xinyu¹^,²^,³, ZHANG Yinxue⁴, ZHANG Yifan¹^,²^,³

1. School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
2. Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Hangzhou 310012, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou 310012, China
4. College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2024-01-12 Revised:2024-02-01 Online:2024-12-15 Published:2025-02-08
Contact: BAI Yan

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)是维持南大洋生物多样性的关键物种,是南大洋的重点保护与限制捕捞对象。在气候变化对南大洋生态环境持续显著影响的背景下,亟需了解南极磷虾的时空分布、变化趋势及其栖息地适宜性。本文基于南极磷虾出现记录及长时序遥感与再分析数据,利用藻华物候与海冰消长的时序特征参数及相关环境参数,构建了宇航员海与迪尔维尔海南极磷虾栖息地适宜性的最大熵模型(Maxent)。研究发现,相较于常规单一时刻环境参数,时序特征参数更适合用于南极磷虾栖息地适宜性评估。基于Maxent模型,反演了两个典型海域超过20年的南极磷虾出现时间和频率变化序列,并通过分析多个环境参数的年际变化趋势进行机制解释。南极磷虾出现时的环境参数显示,宇航员海整体叶绿素质量浓度低于迪尔维尔海,无冰期更短,温度更低,南极磷虾出现时间更晚,且主要由沿岸区域的南极磷虾幼体与年轻个体构成。在1997—2019年,宇航员海沿岸区域磷虾出现时间逐渐提前,出现总天数逐年增多,主要是由于沿岸区域藻华起始时间提前,同时叶绿素质量浓度增加也为南极磷虾幼体提供了更充足的食物来源。迪尔维尔海受海水增温、无冰期缩短、叶绿素质量浓度降低等环境变化趋势的影响,该区域磷虾成熟个体或向更适宜环境迁移,南极磷虾每年出现总天数下降。在模型构建基础上,本研究首次获得了宇航员海与迪尔维尔海的南极磷虾长时序分布数据,可为了解气候变化对南大洋生物的影响、南大洋保护区规划与渔业管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 南极磷虾, 栖息地适宜性, 海冰密集度, 卫星遥感, 时间序列参数, 最大熵模型, 宇航员海, 迪尔维尔海

Abstract:

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species sustaining the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean and is a protected and restricted fishing target. In the context of significant impacts of climate change on the ecological environment of the Southern Ocean, it is urgent to understand the spatio-temporal distribution, change trends, and habitat suitability of Antarctic krill. In this study, based on Antarctic krill presence records and time series satellite and reanalysis data, a Maxent model for habitat suitability in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea were constructed using timing parameters of phytoplankton phenology and sea-ice dynamics, along with related environmental parameters. It was found that timing parameters were more suitable for assessing habitat suitability for Antarctic krill compared to conventional environmental parameters. Using the Maxent model, the data over 20 years on the occurrence time and frequency of Antarctic krill in these two study areas were retrieved, and the mechanisms through the interannual trends of multiple environmental parameters were analyzed. Environmental parameters at the time of krill occurrence showed that the overall chlorophyll a mass concentration in the Cosmonauts Sea was lower than that in the D’Urville Sea, with a shorter ice-free period, lower temperatures, and later krill presence dates primarily composed of larval and young individuals along the coast. From 1997 to 2019, the presence time of krill in the coastal Cosmonauts Sea gradually advanced, and the number of presence days increased, mainly due to earlier onset of algal blooms, while increased chlorophyll a mass concentration provided more abundant overwintering food for krill larvae. In the D’Urville Sea, influenced by warming water, shortened ice-free period, and reduced chlorophyll a mass concentration, mature krill may migrate to a more suitable environment, leading to a decline in annual presence frequency. Based on the constructed habitat suitability model, this study showed the long-term distribution of Antarctic krill occurrence in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea for the first time, which can help to understand the impact of climate change on the ecological environment in the Southern Ocean, and the planning of conservation areas and fishery management in the Southern Ocean.

Key words: Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), habitat suitability, sea ice concentration, satellite remote sensing, timing parameters, maximum entropy model (Maxent), Cosmonauts Sea, D’Urville Sea

中图分类号:

谭亦杨, 白雁, 李腾, 郑芯瑜, 张银雪, 张异凡. 基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例[J]. 海洋学研究, 2024, 42(4): 43-57.

TAN Yiyang, BAI Yan, LI Teng, ZHENG Xinyu, ZHANG Yinxue, ZHANG Yifan. Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2024, 42(4): 43-57.

图/表 11

图1 南大洋南极磷虾出现记录、海流分布特征及研究区域位置 (图中环流分布改绘自文献[28]。)

Fig.1 Location of the study area, Antarctic krill presence records and ocean currents in the Southern Ocean (Ocean currents are redrawn from reference [28].)

图2 宇航员海与迪尔维尔海南极磷虾出现记录数据的年统计分布(a,c)与月统计分布(b,d)

Fig.2 Annual (a, c) and monthly (b, d)presence records of Antarctic krill surveys in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea

表1 本研究使用的遥感与再分析数据参数信息

Tab.1 Parameters information of satellite data and reanalysis data in this study

环境参数	数据集	时间分辨率	空间分辨率
海面温度(SST)	AVHRR OI	日均	0.25°
海冰密集度(SIC)	Sea Ice Index (G02135)	日均	25 km
海面叶绿素质量浓度(CHL)	OC-CCI	8 d	4 km
混合层深度(MLD)	C-GLORS	日均	0.25°

图3 藻华(a)与海冰(b)时序特征参数定义示意图 (图中序号与正文公式序号对应。)

Fig.3 Definition schematic diagram of algal bloom (a) and sea ice (b) timing parameters (Sequence numbers in the diagram correspond to the equation numbers in the main text.)

表2 宇航员海与迪尔维尔海最大熵模型输入参数贡献率

Tab.2 Input parameters contribution in Maxent model for the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea

参数类型	定义	环境参数	贡献率百分比/%
参数类型	定义	环境参数	宇航员海	迪尔维尔海
常规单一时刻环境参数	混合层深度(MLD)	d/m	11.5	16.5
	海面温度(SST)	θ/℃	1.9	8.3
	叶绿素质量浓度(CHL)	ρ/(mg·m^-3)	7.2	15.3
	海冰密集度(SIC)	C/‰	0.0	2.0
藻华与海冰时序特征参数	无冰期持续时间	t_ice-free/d	12.4	7.6
	藻华持续时间	t_BloomDur/d	0.2	0.2
	藻华期间累积CHL	ρ_BloomInteg/(mg·m^-3)	12.4	0.6
	藻华期间CHL峰值	ρ_BloomPeak/(mg·m^-3)	37.5	7.9
南极磷虾出现与时序特征参数时间差	南极磷虾出现时间距离海冰消退时间之间的天数	t_DATOR/d	1.5	9.3
	南极磷虾出现时间距离海冰生成时间之间的天数	t_DBTOA/d	1.7	2.7
	南极磷虾出现时间距离藻华起始时间之间的天数	t_DABloomInit/d	9.6	1.5
	南极磷虾出现时间距离藻华结束时间之间的天数	t_DBBloomTerm/d	3.1	0.5
	南极磷虾出现时间距离藻华期间CHL达峰时间之间的天数	t_DABloomPeak/d	1.1	27.7

图4 宇航员海和迪尔维尔海夏季气候态环境参数分布 (a~h)及与南极磷虾出现记录匹配的单一时刻环境参数的数据分布密度图(i~p)

Fig.4 Data distribution of climatology environmental parameters during austral summer (a-h) and kernal density of Antarctic krill presence matched single-moment environmental parameters (i-p) in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea

图5 宇航员海和迪尔维尔海与南极磷虾出现记录匹配的时序特征参数的数据分布密度图

Fig.5 Kernel density of Antarctic krill presence matched timing parameters in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea

图6 1997—2019年宇航员海(a)和迪尔维尔海(b)沿岸及开阔大洋感兴趣区域南极磷虾年内首次出现时间的年际变化图 (感兴趣区域选取见图1。)

Fig.6 Interannual variation of Antarctic krill first appearance dates of the regions of interest (ROIs) in the coastal area and open ocean of the Cosmonauts Sea (a) and the D’Urville Sea (b) from 1997 to 2019 (Range of ROIs can be seen in Fig.1.)

图7 1997—2019年宇航员海(a)和迪尔维尔海(b)沿岸及开阔大洋感兴趣区域南极磷虾出现总天数年际变化图 (感兴趣区域选取见图1。)

Fig.7 Interannual variation of Antarctic krill total present days of the regions of interest (ROIs) in the coastal area and open ocean of the Cosmonaut Sea (a) and the D’Urville Sea (b) from 1997 to 2019 (Range of ROIs can be seen in Fig.1.)

图8 1997—2019年宇航员海感兴趣区域建模环境参数年际变化折线图 (蓝线表示开阔大洋区域,红线表示沿岸区域,虚线为通过显著性检验的趋势线(p<0.1)。感兴趣区域位置见图1。)

Fig.8 Interannual variation of modeling environmental parameters of ROIs in the Cosmonauts Sea from 1997 to 2019 (Blue line represents open ocean and red line represents coastal area. The dashed line represents the trend line that has passed the significance test (p<0.1). Range of ROIs can be seen in Fig.1.)

图9 1997—2019年迪尔维尔海感兴趣区域主要建模环境参数年际变化折线图 (蓝线表示开阔大洋区域,红线表示沿岸区域,虚线为通过显著性检验的趋势线(p<0.1)。感兴趣区域位置见图1。建模环境参数SIC由于多为0值,不具有明显趋势特征,故在图中未画出。)

Fig.9 Interannual variation of main modeling environmental parameters of ROIs in the D’Urville Sea from 1997 to 2019 (Blue line represents open ocean and red line represents coastal area. The dashed line represents the trend line that has passed the significance test (p<0.1). Range of ROIs can be seen in Fig. 1. The modeling input parameter SIC is primarily comprised of zero values and does not exhibit significant trend characteristics, therefore, it is not plotted.)

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基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例

Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea

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