基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例

谭亦杨; 白雁; 李腾; 郑芯瑜; 张银雪; 张异凡

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

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海洋学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4) : 43-57. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

研究论文

基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例

谭亦杨 ¹^,²^,³ ,
白雁 ¹^,²^,³^,^* ,
李腾 ²^,³ ,
郑芯瑜 ¹^,²^,³ ,
张银雪 ⁴ ,
张异凡 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea

TAN Yiyang ¹^,²^,³ ,
BAI Yan ¹^,²^,³^,^* ,
LI Teng ²^,³ ,
ZHENG Xinyu ¹^,²^,³ ,
ZHANG Yinxue ⁴ ,
ZHANG Yifan ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)是维持南大洋生物多样性的关键物种,是南大洋的重点保护与限制捕捞对象。在气候变化对南大洋生态环境持续显著影响的背景下,亟需了解南极磷虾的时空分布、变化趋势及其栖息地适宜性。本文基于南极磷虾出现记录及长时序遥感与再分析数据,利用藻华物候与海冰消长的时序特征参数及相关环境参数,构建了宇航员海与迪尔维尔海南极磷虾栖息地适宜性的最大熵模型(Maxent)。研究发现,相较于常规单一时刻环境参数,时序特征参数更适合用于南极磷虾栖息地适宜性评估。基于Maxent模型,反演了两个典型海域超过20年的南极磷虾出现时间和频率变化序列,并通过分析多个环境参数的年际变化趋势进行机制解释。南极磷虾出现时的环境参数显示,宇航员海整体叶绿素质量浓度低于迪尔维尔海,无冰期更短,温度更低,南极磷虾出现时间更晚,且主要由沿岸区域的南极磷虾幼体与年轻个体构成。在1997—2019年,宇航员海沿岸区域磷虾出现时间逐渐提前,出现总天数逐年增多,主要是由于沿岸区域藻华起始时间提前,同时叶绿素质量浓度增加也为南极磷虾幼体提供了更充足的食物来源。迪尔维尔海受海水增温、无冰期缩短、叶绿素质量浓度降低等环境变化趋势的影响,该区域磷虾成熟个体或向更适宜环境迁移,南极磷虾每年出现总天数下降。在模型构建基础上,本研究首次获得了宇航员海与迪尔维尔海的南极磷虾长时序分布数据,可为了解气候变化对南大洋生物的影响、南大洋保护区规划与渔业管理提供科学依据。

Abstract

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species sustaining the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean and is a protected and restricted fishing target. In the context of significant impacts of climate change on the ecological environment of the Southern Ocean, it is urgent to understand the spatio-temporal distribution, change trends, and habitat suitability of Antarctic krill. In this study, based on Antarctic krill presence records and time series satellite and reanalysis data, a Maxent model for habitat suitability in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea were constructed using timing parameters of phytoplankton phenology and sea-ice dynamics, along with related environmental parameters. It was found that timing parameters were more suitable for assessing habitat suitability for Antarctic krill compared to conventional environmental parameters. Using the Maxent model, the data over 20 years on the occurrence time and frequency of Antarctic krill in these two study areas were retrieved, and the mechanisms through the interannual trends of multiple environmental parameters were analyzed. Environmental parameters at the time of krill occurrence showed that the overall chlorophyll a mass concentration in the Cosmonauts Sea was lower than that in the D’Urville Sea, with a shorter ice-free period, lower temperatures, and later krill presence dates primarily composed of larval and young individuals along the coast. From 1997 to 2019, the presence time of krill in the coastal Cosmonauts Sea gradually advanced, and the number of presence days increased, mainly due to earlier onset of algal blooms, while increased chlorophyll a mass concentration provided more abundant overwintering food for krill larvae. In the D’Urville Sea, influenced by warming water, shortened ice-free period, and reduced chlorophyll a mass concentration, mature krill may migrate to a more suitable environment, leading to a decline in annual presence frequency. Based on the constructed habitat suitability model, this study showed the long-term distribution of Antarctic krill occurrence in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea for the first time, which can help to understand the impact of climate change on the ecological environment in the Southern Ocean, and the planning of conservation areas and fishery management in the Southern Ocean.

导出引用

谭亦杨, 白雁, 李腾, 等. 基于时序特征参数的南极磷虾栖息地适宜性模型及长时序变化分析——以宇航员海与迪尔维尔海为例[J]. 海洋学研究. 2024, 42(4): 43-57 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

TAN Yiyang, BAI Yan, LI Teng, et al. Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2024, 42(4): 43-57 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

中图分类号： S93

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