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浙江近海北上型台风风暴增水特征及其动力机制研究
Characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of storm surge induced by northward-tracking typhoons along the Zhejiang coast
针对浙江沿海北上型台风频发趋势，本研究以台风“灿鸿”（1509）为例，基于Delft3D模型构建了中国海-浙江沿海风浪流耦合模型，分析了台风登陆前后浙江沿海风暴潮增水的时空演变过程，并对风应力、气压、波浪及天文潮等动力因子增水的相对贡献进行了量化。研究结果表明：在台风登陆前后的24 h内，三门湾、象山港及杭州湾依次出现增水极值，最大增水达3.4 m；浙江北部海域的增水强度大、退水慢，而南部增水均匀、退水快。风应力增水的空间分布与总增水一致，对总增水的贡献最高（60%~90%以上），其增水多集中于低潮阶段；气压增水的空间分布较均匀，贡献次之（20%~50%）；波浪增水主要发生在低潮期的近岸浅水区，贡献最小（10%~20%）；潮涌相互作用可加大局部海域的增水极值并延缓退水过程，在杭州湾、三门湾等海域增水中的贡献占比可达30%~50%。对浙江沿海各因子增水贡献的归一化分析表明，风应力增水贡献表现为北部显著高于南部；气压增水与潮涌相互作用的贡献总体相当，在北部海域，潮涌相互作用的贡献更强，而在南部海域，气压增水的贡献更强；波浪增水贡献为南部海域略高于北部海域。总体上，“灿鸿”等北上型台风会导致浙江北部沿海风暴潮呈现增水强度大、持续时间长、退水缓慢的特征，使其面临更大的洪水风险。
In view of the frequent trend of northward-moving typhoons in Zhejiang coastal areas， taking typhoon Chan-hom （1509） as an example， a wind-wave-current coupled model of the China Seas-Zhejiang coastal area was constructed based on the Delft3D model. The temporal and spatial evolution of storm surge in Zhejiang coastal area during 24 hours before and after typhoon landing were analyzed， and the relative contribution of dynamic factors such as wind stress， air pressure， wave and astronomical tide were quantified. The results showed that in the 24 hours before and after the typhoon landed， the Sanmen Bay， Xiangshan Port and Hangzhou Bay appeared the extreme value of surge in turn， and the maximum surge was 3.4 m. The northern Zhejiang sea area experienced high surge intensity and slow recession， while the southern area showed a more uniform surge distribution and rapid recession. The spatial distribution of wind stress induced surge was consistent with the total surge， with the highest contribution to the total surge （60%-90% or higher）， and the surge was concentrated in the low tide stage. Air pressure induced surge was more uniformly distributed， with a secondary contribution （20%-50%）. Wave induced surge mainly occured in nearshore shallow waters during low tide， contributing the least （10%-20%）. Tide-surge interaction could amplify localized peak surges and delay the recession process， accounting for 30%-50% of the total surge in areas such as Hangzhou Bay and Sanmen Bay. Normalized analysis of factor contributions indicated that wind stress contribution was significantly higher in the north than in the south. The contributions of air pressure and tide-surge interaction were generally equivalent； specifically， tide-surge interaction was dominant in the north， while air pressure was more significant in the south. The contribution of wave induced surge was slightly higher in the south than in the north. Overall， northward-moving typhoons like "Chan-hom" led to storm surges characterized by high intensity， long duration， and slow recession in northern Zhejiang， thereby posed a higher risk of coastal flooding.
风暴潮增水 / 风应力 / 气压 / 波浪 / 天文潮 / 数值模拟 / 台风“灿鸿”
storm surge / wind stress / air pressure / waves / astronomical tide / numerical simulation / Typhoon Chan-hom
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将Holland风场与ERA5风场相结合,通过引入一个随风速半径变化的权重系数,构建了混合风场,进而利用MIKE21 SW建立了浙江海域台风浪模型。使用Holland风场、ERA5风场、混合风场作为输入风场模拟1918号台风“米娜”期间的风速和有效波高,验证结果说明Holland风场和ERA5风场均无法准确反映真实风场和有效波高,而本文构建的混合风场弥补了两种风场的不足。为验证混合风场在浙江海域是否具有普适性,选取近5年影响浙江海域最为严重的5个典型台风进行台风浪数值模拟实验,并开展误差统计分析。结果表明:Holland风场在台风中心周围的风速模拟表现较好,最大风速的平均相对误差为8.62%~10.19%,但10 m/s以下风速的平均相对误差较大,为29.76%~44.29%;ERA5风场在台风中心周围的风速偏小,最大风速的平均相对误差为17.64%~25.77%,但10 m/s以下风速的平均相对误差比Holland风场小,为19.64%~32.00%。对5个台风的模拟中,由Holland风场、ERA5风场和混合风场驱动得到的台风浪有效波高平均相对误差的平均值分别为29.92%、25.62%和22.82%,均方根误差的平均值分别为0.46 m、0.42 m和0.39 m,一致性指数分别为0.94、0.95和0.96。上述结果说明本文构建的混合风场在浙江海域具有普适性,能够提高台风浪的模拟准确度。
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Despite the increasing number of studies on the river-tide interactions in estuaries, less attention has been paid to the role of seasonal morphological changes on tidal regime. This study analyzes the seasonal interplay of river and tide in the Qiantang Estuary, China, particularly focusing on the influences of the active morphological evolution induced by the seasonal variation of river discharge. The study is based on the high and low water levels at three representative stations along the estuary and daily river discharge through 2015, an intermediate flow year in which a typical river flood occurred, as well as the bathymetric data measured in April, July and November, 2015. The results show strong seasonal variations of the water level in addition to the spring-neap variation. These variations are obviously due to the interaction between river discharge and tide but can only be fully explained by including the effect of morphological changes. Two types of the influences of the variation of the river discharge on the tidal dynamics in the estuary can be distinguished: one is immediately induced by the high flow and the other continues for a much longer period because of the bed erosion and the following bed recovery. Tidal range in the upper reach can be doubled after the flood because of bed erosion and then decrease under normal discharge periods due to sediment accumulation. Over a relatively short term such as a month or a spring-neap tidal cycle, there exist good relationships between the tidal range, tidal amplification in the upper reach and the tidal range at the mouth, and between the hydraulic head over the upper and lower reaches. Such relationships are unclear if all data over the whole year are considered together, mainly because of the active morphological evolution.
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Coastal evolutions are expected to have a significant impact on storm tides, disproportionately aggravating coastal flooding. In this study, we utilize a nested storm tide model to provide an integrated investigation of storm tide responses to changes in coastline and bathymetry along the Zhejiang coasts. We selected coastline and bathymetry data from 1980 and 2016, as well as data from three typical typhoon events (i.e., Winnie, Haikui, and Chan-hom) for simulating the storm surge processes. The results indicate that changes in the coastline and bathymetry from 1980 to 2016 have resulted in an increase in storm tides in the northern part and a decrease in the central part of Zhejiang. Specifically, storm tides in Hangzhou Bay have increased significantly, with an average increase of about 0.3 m in the maximum storm tides primarily attributed to coastline changes. On the contrary, in smaller basins like Sanmen Bay, while reclamation itself has reduced peak storm surges, rapid siltation has consequently exacerbated the storm surge. By decomposing storm tides into astronomical tides and storm surges, we discovered that the change in tidal levels was twice as significant as the surge change. Moreover, the nonlinear tide–surge interaction was nearly four times that of the pure surge, significantly contributing to storm surge variation. Alterations in the momentum balance reveal that the water depth-induced bottom friction and wind stress increase contributes to the local enlargement of storm tides at the bay head, while the coastline changes exaggerate nearshore storm tides through an increase in the advection term.
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