随着滨海核电厂址的开发利用日趋饱和,选取海岛作为核电厂址成为一种新思路。针对海岛厂址易受台风灾害影响的问题,本文通过对天文高潮位、海平面上升、可能最大风暴潮增水和最大台风浪四个增水因子的研究来确定厂址的设计基准洪水位。结果表明:该区域10%超越概率的天文高潮位为3.14 m,未来80 a海平面上升幅度为0.31 m。基于MIKE21数值模型,以可能最大热带气旋参数为基础构建了多种假想台风路径,发现:当台风移动方向为NW向,距离厂址中心左侧0.5R(R为台风最大风速半径)时,风暴潮增水达到最大,增水最大值为2.99 m;当台风移动方向为W向,且距离厂址左侧R处时,台风浪波高达到最大,厂址前沿H1/100波高最大值达到了8.02 m;岛屿东侧遭受的风暴潮和波浪威胁较其他方向更为严重。各水位影响因子组合叠加后海岛核电厂址设计基准洪水位可达11.25 m。相对于其他滨海厂址,海岛厂址的风暴潮增水相对偏小,但受波浪的影响更为显著。
Abstract
With the increasing saturation of coastal nuclear power plant sites, it is a new idea to select islands as nuclear power plant sites. In view of the problem that the island sites are vulnerable to typhoon disasters, the design basis flood level of the sites is determined by studying astronomical high tide, sea level rise, possible maximum storm surge and maximum typhoon wave. The results show that the astronomical high tide level of 10% superfrequency in this region is 3.14 m and the predicted sea level rise in the next 80 years will be 0.31 m. Based on MIKE21 model, a variety of hypothetical typhoon paths were constructed using tropical cyclone parameters. The northwest moving path of typhoon with 0.5R (R is the maximum wind speed radius of typhoon) to the left of the site produces the possible maximum storm surge, with the maximum water level of 2.99 m. When the typhoon moves in the direction of west, with R to left of the site, the maximum H1/100 wave height reaches 8.02 m, especially on the east side of the island, which suffers from severe typhoon wave threats. Considering the superposition of various basis flood factors, the design basis flood level of the island nuclear power plant site reaches 11.25 m. Because the proposed site is located on an island and surrounded by sea waters, compared with other coastal sites, the storm surge level is relatively small, but the impact of waves is more significant.
关键词
海岛核电厂址 /
设计基准洪水位 /
可能最大风暴潮 /
台风浪
Key words
island nuclear power plant /
design basis flood level /
possible maximum storm surge /
typhoon wave height
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基金
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ20D060003);浙江省农村水利水电资源配置与调控关键技术重点实验室开放基金(ZJWEU-RWM-20200102B)
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