基于相似系数的海温中长期统计预报方法研究

李科; 苑福利; 刘厂

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2021.01.008

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海洋学研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1) : 67-78. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2021.01.008

研究报道

基于相似系数的海温中长期统计预报方法研究

李科¹, 苑福利¹, 刘厂²

作者信息 +

Study on the medium and long-term statistical forecasting method of SST based on similarity coefficient

LI Ke¹, YUAN Fuli¹, LIU Chang²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

海温是认知和研究大气、海洋物理性质和演变规律的重要海洋环境动力要素之一,也是海洋预报组成中不可或缺的组成部分,对海温的分布及演变规律进行研究对海洋经济、环保和国防安全具有重要的意义。本文提出了一种基于相似系数的海温统计预报方法,利用数理统计分析方法,构建基于相似系数的统计预报模型来实现海温的单点时间序列预报。在南海海域海温预报中长期实验中,该方法比气候态预报和ARIMA预报方法的结果更优,证明该方法的有效性并为海温的中长期预报提供了新思路。

Abstract

Sea Surface Temperature(SST) is one of the important marine environmental dynamics elements in the cognition and study of the physical properties and evolution of the atmosphere and ocean, and is also an indispensable component in the composition of marine forecasting. The study of the distribution and evolution of SST is of great significance to the marine economy, environmental protection and national defense security. In this study, a statistical forecasting method based on the similarity coefficient was proposed, and a statistical forecasting model based on the similarity coefficient was constructed to realize the single-point time series forecasting of SST. In the medium and long-term experiments of SST forecasting in the South China Sea, this method has better results than those from Optimal Climate Normals forecasting and ARIMA forecasting methods, which proves the effectiveness of this method and provides a new idea for the medium and long-term forecasting of SST.

导出引用

李科, 苑福利, 刘厂. 基于相似系数的海温中长期统计预报方法研究[J]. 海洋学研究. 2021, 39(1): 67-78 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2021.01.008

LI Ke, YUAN Fuli, LIU Chang. Study on the medium and long-term statistical forecasting method of SST based on similarity coefficient[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2021, 39(1): 67-78 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2021.01.008

中图分类号： P731.31

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