海洋学研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 1-11.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2021.02.001

• •    下一篇

西北太平洋热带气旋路径预报偏差分析

许钰佳1，陈长霖*1，彭旭东2，刘磊1,3   

  1. 1.复旦大学 大气与海洋科学系，上海 200438；
    2.中国人民解放军 31010部队，北京 100081；
    3.国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，湖南 长沙 410073
  • 出版日期:2021-06-15 发布日期:2021-06-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划重点专项(2019YFC1510101);国家自然科学基金项目(41775053)

Analysis of tropical cyclone forecast errors in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

XU Yujia1, CHEN Changlin*1, PENG Xudong2, LIU Lei1,3   

  1. 1.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
    2.Unit 31010, Peoples Liberation Army, Beijing 100081, China; 
    3.College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
  • Online:2021-06-15 Published:2021-06-15

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摘要： 基于2005—2018年日本气象厅的6 h主观预报数据，分析西北太平洋热带气旋路径预报偏差的方位分布特征，探讨路径预报偏差与副热带高压的可能关系。统计结果表明，以东、南、西、北方位划分预报偏差空间分布，路径预报偏差以偏向东北向和西南向为主，24、48、72 h预报中东北西南向偏差分别占61.62%、64.02%、66.94%。分析东北西南偏差空间特征，发现西南向的预报偏差主要发生在热带气旋路径密集区的北部海域(24°N附近)，而东北向的预报偏差主要发生在南部海域(16°N附近)。进一步分析这种东北西南偏差和副热带高压的关系，发现大部分东北偏差出现在副热带高压的西南侧，且对应的偏副热带高压脊线位置更靠北、西脊点更靠西、面积更大；而西南偏差出现在副热带高压的西北侧，副热带高压脊线位置则更靠南、西脊点更靠东、面积更小。即副热带高压引导的西行台风，路径预报易偏东北；北折台风，路径预报倾向偏西南。

关键词: 西北太平洋, 热带气旋, 路径预报偏差, 空间分布, 副热带高压

Abstract: The distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors in the northwestern Pacific Ocean were studied based on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 6-hour TC forecast data from 2005 to 2018. The relationship between track forecast errors and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was also analyzed. The results show that the northeast and southwest displacements are the main track errors in all the 0, 24, 48, 72 h forecasts. The ratios of the northeast and southwest track errors to the total forecast numbers for the 24, 48, 72 h forecasts are 61.62%, 64.02%, 66.94%. There is significant difference in spatial distributions between northeast and southwest track errors. The former mostly occur around 16°N, and the latter around 24°N. Further analyzing the relationship between northeast-southwest biases and WPSH, it is found that 70% of northeast track errors occur to the southwest of the WPSH and about 60% of southwest track errors occur to the northwest of the WPSH. Compared to the WPSH in southwest track errors, the WPSH in northeast track errors has a more extensive area and a more northward ridge. The northeast forecast errors tend to happen in WPSH induced westward migration of TCs, and the southwest forecast errors tend to happen in WPSH induced northward migration of TCs.

Key words: northwestern Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclone, track forecast error, spatial distribution, subtropical high

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