Abstract: To accurately simulate the typhoon track and intensity, the WRF model was used to compare the sensitivity of different microphysical processes parameterization and cumulus convection parameterization on typhoon track and intensity simulation. The ensemble prediction method was been considered on the effect of the track and intensity error of typhoon Kai-tak. Four microphysical parameterization schemes and three cumulus convection parameterization schemes were selected to simulate for the track and intensity of Typhoon Kai-tak. The results show that different parameterization schemes have obvious influence on the simulation results of the track and intensity of typhoon. The parameterization scheme of cumulus convection is more sensitive than the parameterization scheme of microphysical process. Based on the ensemble prediction method of disturbing members based on different parameterization schemes, the simulation accurate of typhoon track and intensity is improved obviously. The error of typhoon track increases little with time, and the result is better than the simulation results of all twelve single schemes. From the aspect of typhoon intensity, the trend of typhoon intensity based on the ensemble prediction method is consistent with the actual result, which is better than the most of the test schemes. The results show that the ensemble prediction model constructed with different microphysical parameterization schemes and cumulus convection parameterization schemes can improve the simulation of typhoon track and intensity, reducing the track uncertainty produced by different parameterization schemes, which can provide a scientific reference for improving the forecasting ability of typhoon.

Key words: typhoon, mesoscale meteorological model, microphysical parameterization, cumulus convective parameterization, ensemble prediction method