Journal of Marine Sciences ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 69-82.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.01.007
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LIN Lianjie1(), DONG Changming1,*(
), JI Yuxiang2, LIM KAM SIAN Kenny Thiam Choy3, LI Zhaoxin4, JIANG Xingliang5, CAO Yuhan6, GAO Hui1, WANG Shengqiang1, CAO Qian1
Received:
2023-03-15
Revised:
2023-09-08
Online:
2024-03-15
Published:
2024-05-11
CLC Number:
LIN Lianjie, DONG Changming, JI Yuxiang, LIM KAM SIAN Kenny Thiam Choy, LI Zhaoxin, JIANG Xingliang, CAO Yuhan, GAO Hui, WANG Shengqiang, CAO Qian. Prediction of UIva prolifera drift and transportation based on remote sensing data and numerical models: A case study in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2024, 42(1): 69-82.
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URL: http://hyxyj.sio.org.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.01.007
Fig.2 Diagram of WRF model range setting (The black box area is the calculation range of WRF model, and the red box area is the UIva prolifera forecast range.)
Fig.6 Comparison between ASCAT observation (a) and WRF model simulation (b) in monthly average sea surface wind speed data at 10 meters in the study area in September 2019
Fig.7 Spatial distribution of relative errors in monthly average sea surface wind speed data at 10 meters observed by ASCAT and simulated by WRF model in the study area in September 2019
Fig.9 Spatial distribution of relative errors in monthly average significant wave height simulated by ERA5 and SWAN modes in the study area in September 2019
Fig.10 Comparison of sea surface temperature between satellite observation provided by RSS (a) and simulated by ROMS model (b) in the study area in June 2019
Fig.12 Comparison of the coverage area of UIva prolifera predicted by the model and satellite observations on May 27th and 28th, 2017 (The dashed box represents the appearance block of UIva prolifera.)
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积 | 浒苔中心点位置 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测/km2 | 模式预报/km2 | 误差/% | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差/km | ||
连云港近岸 | 38.89 | 31.56 | 23.20 | 34.88 °N,119.25 °E | 34.89 °N,119.24 °E | 0.01 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 975.17 | 1 170.60 | 16.70 | 35.01 °N,121.41 °E | 34.87 °N,121.23 °E | 0.28 | |
长江口 | 133.82 | 166.23 | 19.50 | 31.48 °N,121.93 °E | 31.64 °N,121.86 °E | 0.28 | |
江苏近海 | 1 147.88 | 1 368.39 | 16.11 |
Tab.1 48-hour model prediction and satellite observation of the coverage area and center point position of UIva prolifera (average values of May 27th and 28th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积 | 浒苔中心点位置 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测/km2 | 模式预报/km2 | 误差/% | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差/km | ||
连云港近岸 | 38.89 | 31.56 | 23.20 | 34.88 °N,119.25 °E | 34.89 °N,119.24 °E | 0.01 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 975.17 | 1 170.60 | 16.70 | 35.01 °N,121.41 °E | 34.87 °N,121.23 °E | 0.28 | |
长江口 | 133.82 | 166.23 | 19.50 | 31.48 °N,121.93 °E | 31.64 °N,121.86 °E | 0.28 | |
江苏近海 | 1 147.88 | 1 368.39 | 16.11 |
区域 | 5月27日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 5月28日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | ||
连云港近岸 | 275.49 | 214.42 | 61.07 | 88.85 | 52.59 | 36.26 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 39.88 | 48.84 | -8.96 | 33.60 | 137.89 | -104.29 | |
长江口 | 294.16 | 334.53 | -40.37 | 95.58 | 86.68 | 8.90 |
Tab.2 48-hour model prediction and satellite observation of the drift direction of UIva prolifera (May 27th and 28th, 2017)
区域 | 5月27日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 5月28日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | ||
连云港近岸 | 275.49 | 214.42 | 61.07 | 88.85 | 52.59 | 36.26 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 39.88 | 48.84 | -8.96 | 33.60 | 137.89 | -104.29 | |
长江口 | 294.16 | 334.53 | -40.37 | 95.58 | 86.68 | 8.90 |
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积 | 浒苔中心点位置 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测/km2 | 模式预报/km2 | 误差/% | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差/km | ||
黄海北部 | 1 270.30 | 1 212.00 | 4.81 | 35.61°N,120.85°E | 34.88°N,121.17°E | 1.20 | |
黄海南部 | 440.61 | 155.71 | 182.97 | 32.89°N,122.84°E | 31.62°N,121.85°E | 2.04 | |
江苏近海 | 1 710.91 | 1 367.71 | 25.09 |
Tab.3 48-hour model prediction and satellite observation of the coverage area and center point position of UIva prolifera (average values of June 16th and 17th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积 | 浒苔中心点位置 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测/km2 | 模式预报/km2 | 误差/% | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差/km | ||
黄海北部 | 1 270.30 | 1 212.00 | 4.81 | 35.61°N,120.85°E | 34.88°N,121.17°E | 1.20 | |
黄海南部 | 440.61 | 155.71 | 182.97 | 32.89°N,122.84°E | 31.62°N,121.85°E | 2.04 | |
江苏近海 | 1 710.91 | 1 367.71 | 25.09 |
区域 | 6月16日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 6月17日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | ||
黄海北部 | 58.61 | 66.13 | -7.52 | 47.53 | 126.43 | -78.90 | |
黄海南部 | 229.13 | 224.27 | 4.86 | 48.73 | 268.99 | -220.26 |
Tab.4 48-hour model prediction and satellite observation of the drift direction of UIva prolifera (June 16th and 17th, 2017)
区域 | 6月16日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 6月17日浒苔漂移方向/(°) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | 卫星观测 | 模式预报 | 误差 | ||
黄海北部 | 58.61 | 66.13 | -7.52 | 47.53 | 126.43 | -78.90 | |
黄海南部 | 229.13 | 224.27 | 4.86 | 48.73 | 268.99 | -220.26 |
Fig.15 Comparison between the distribution of UIva prolifera predicted by the 24-hour forecast considering and without considering the Stokes Drift model and the satellite observation results (May 27th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积/km2 | 模式预报浒苔覆盖面积与卫星观测结果的误差/% | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 34.34 | 32.26 | 26.65 | 0.06 | 28.84 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 1 029.70 | 1 200.77 | 1 474.32 | 14.25 | 30.16 | |
长江口 | 143.42 | 175.35 | 200.60 | 18.21 | 28.50 | |
江苏近海 | 1 207.46 | 1 408.38 | 1 701.57 | 14.27 | 29.04 |
Tab.5 Comparison of 24-hour UIva prolifera coverage area predicted by considering and without considering the Stokes Drift model with satellite observation results (May 27th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔覆盖面积/km2 | 模式预报浒苔覆盖面积与卫星观测结果的误差/% | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 34.34 | 32.26 | 26.65 | 0.06 | 28.84 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 1 029.70 | 1 200.77 | 1 474.32 | 14.25 | 30.16 | |
长江口 | 143.42 | 175.35 | 200.60 | 18.21 | 28.50 | |
江苏近海 | 1 207.46 | 1 408.38 | 1 701.57 | 14.27 | 29.04 |
区域 | 浒苔中心点位置 | 模式预报浒苔中心点位置与卫星观测结果的误差/km | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 34.87°N,119.25°E | 34.87°N,119.24°E | 34.88°N,119.23°E | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 34.96°N,121.34°E | 34.86°N,121.23°E | 34.86°N,121.24°E | 0.19 | 0.19 | |
长江口 | 31.45°N,121.93°E | 31.64°N,121.76°E | 31.63°N,121.86°E | 0.38 | 0.32 |
Tab.6 Comparison of the 24-hour center position of UIva prolifera predicted by considering and without considering the Stokes Drift model with satellite observation results (May 27th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔中心点位置 | 模式预报浒苔中心点位置与卫星观测结果的误差/km | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 34.87°N,119.25°E | 34.87°N,119.24°E | 34.88°N,119.23°E | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 34.96°N,121.34°E | 34.86°N,121.23°E | 34.86°N,121.24°E | 0.19 | 0.19 | |
长江口 | 31.45°N,121.93°E | 31.64°N,121.76°E | 31.63°N,121.86°E | 0.38 | 0.32 |
区域 | 浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 模式预报浒苔漂移方向与卫星观测结果的误差/(°) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 275.49 | 279.85 | 214.42 | -4.36 | 61.07 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 39.88 | 40.44 | 48.84 | -0.57 | -8.96 | |
长江口 | 294.16 | 156.28 | 334.53 | 137.88 | -40.37 |
Tab.7 Comparison of 24-hour drift directions of UIva prolifera predicted by considering and without considering the Stokes Drift model with satellite observation results (May 27th, 2017)
区域 | 浒苔漂移方向/(°) | 模式预报浒苔漂移方向与卫星观测结果的误差/(°) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫星观测 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 考虑Stokes漂流模式 | 不考虑Stokes漂流模式 | ||
连云港近岸 | 275.49 | 279.85 | 214.42 | -4.36 | 61.07 | |
黄海北部离岸 | 39.88 | 40.44 | 48.84 | -0.57 | -8.96 | |
长江口 | 294.16 | 156.28 | 334.53 | 137.88 | -40.37 |
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