The applicability study of different typhoon wind fields in typhoon wave simulation in Zhejiang sea area

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.02.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Combined with the Holland wind fields and the ERA5 wind fields, the mixed wind fields was set up by introducing a weight coefficient varying with the radius of wind speed, and a typhoon wave model in Zhejiang sea area was established using MIKE21 SW. Then, the Holland, the ERA5 and the mixed wind fields were used as the input wind fields to simulate the wind speed and the significant wave height during No.1918 typhoon Mitag, respectively. The verification shows that the simulated results obtained using the Holland wind fields and the ERA5 wind fields cannot agree accurately with the observed data, while the mixed wind fields proposed in this study can improve the simulation accuracy. In order to study whether the above conclusion is universal in Zhejiang sea area, five typical typhoons that have the most serious impact on Zhejiang sea area in the recent 5 years were selected for typhoon wave numerical simulations and the error statistical analysis. The results indicate the wind speed around the typhoon center is relatively good using the Holland wind fields and the average relative errors of the maximum wind speed are 8.62%-10.19%, but the average relative errors of the wind speed below 10 m/s is relatively bigger, reaching 29.76%-44.29%. However, the wind speed around the typhoon center using the ERA5 wind fields is smaller than the observed data, and the average relative errors of the maximum wind speed are 17.64%-25.77%, but the average relative errors of wind speed below 10 m/s are smaller than that using the Holland wind fields, which are 19.64%-32.00%. During the five typhoon processes, the average values of the average relative errors of the significant wave height driven by Holland, the ERA5 and the mixed wind fields are 29.92%, 25.62% and 22.82%, respectively. Correspondingly, the average root mean square errors are 0.46 m, 0.42 m and 0.39 m and the consistency indexes are 0.94, 0.95 and 0.96. The above results shows that the mixed wind fields proposed in this study is universal in Zhejiang sea area and can improve the simulation accuracy of typhoon waves.

Key words: MIKE21 SW, Holland wind fields, ERA5 wind fields, mixed wind fields, Zhejiang sea area, typhoon wave

CLC Number:

P732

CHEN Xiangyu, YU Jiangmei, SHEN Yuan, NI Yunlin, LU Fan. The applicability study of different typhoon wind fields in typhoon wave simulation in Zhejiang sea area[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2024, 42(2): 15-25.

Figures/Tables 11

References 36

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台风名称	观测站	强风区外风速^①的平均相对误差		最大风速的平均相对误差		有效波高最大值的平均相对误差
台风名称	观测站	Holland风场	ERA5风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场
利奇马	舟山外海	37.34%	29.41%	9.52%	23.86%	1.29%	23.22%
米娜	温州	44.29%	32.00%	10.19%	25.77%	1.44%	28.10%
烟花	嵊山	29.76%	23.45%	8.62%	19.44%	1.01%	12.76%
灿都	舟山外海	32.37%	26.49%	10.17%	21.13%	1.52%	25.25%
梅花	象山	38.83%	19.64%	8.67%	17.64%	1.35%	11.03%

台风名称	观测站	强风区外风速^①的平均相对误差		最大风速的平均相对误差		有效波高最大值的平均相对误差
台风名称	观测站	Holland风场	ERA5风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场
利奇马	舟山外海	37.34%	29.41%	9.52%	23.86%	1.29%	23.22%
米娜	温州	44.29%	32.00%	10.19%	25.77%	1.44%	28.10%
烟花	嵊山	29.76%	23.45%	8.62%	19.44%	1.01%	12.76%
灿都	舟山外海	32.37%	26.49%	10.17%	21.13%	1.52%	25.25%
梅花	象山	38.83%	19.64%	8.67%	17.64%	1.35%	11.03%

台风名称	观测站	平均相对误差			均方根误差/m			一致性指数
台风名称	观测站	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场
利奇马	温州	33.47%	27.60%	25.51%	0.48	0.44	0.46	0.91	0.94	0.93
米娜	舟山外海	41.31%	31.49%	28.72%	0.51	0.52	0.47	0.92	0.87	0.92
烟花	嵊山	23.03%	22.18%	18.91%	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.97	0.97	0.98
灿都	舟山外海	26.34%	25.51%	25.22%	0.39	0.36	0.32	0.97	0.98	0.98
梅花	虾峙	25.45%	21.34%	15.73%	0.45	0.34	0.30	0.94	0.97	0.99
平均值		29.92%	25.62%	22.82%	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.94	0.95	0.96

台风名称	观测站	平均相对误差			均方根误差/m			一致性指数
台风名称	观测站	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场	Holland风场	ERA5风场	混合风场
利奇马	温州	33.47%	27.60%	25.51%	0.48	0.44	0.46	0.91	0.94	0.93
米娜	舟山外海	41.31%	31.49%	28.72%	0.51	0.52	0.47	0.92	0.87	0.92
烟花	嵊山	23.03%	22.18%	18.91%	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.97	0.97	0.98
灿都	舟山外海	26.34%	25.51%	25.22%	0.39	0.36	0.32	0.97	0.98	0.98
梅花	虾峙	25.45%	21.34%	15.73%	0.45	0.34	0.30	0.94	0.97	0.99
平均值		29.92%	25.62%	22.82%	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.94	0.95	0.96

数据来源	风场	有效波高最大值/m	平均绝对误差/m	均方根误差/m	一致性指数
李新文等^[7]	ERA5	7.9	0.36	0.49	0.97
	CCMP	8.8	0.52	0.74	0.96
	CFSv2	9.6	0.76	1.12	0.90
本文	ERA5	7.56	0.34	0.43	0.97
本文	混合风场	8.76	0.32	0.41	0.98