
Intelligent wave forecasting and evaluation along the southeast coast of China based on ConvLSTM method
JIN Yang, HAN Lei, JIN Meibing, DONG Changming
Journal of Marine Sciences ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3) : 88-98.
Intelligent wave forecasting and evaluation along the southeast coast of China based on ConvLSTM method
Compared with the semi-theoretical and semi-analytical wave forecasting and numerical modeling,artificial intelligence wave forecasting has the advantages of higher forecasting accuracy and lower computational resource requirements. In this paper, a two-dimensional significant wave height (SWH) forecasting model for the southeast coast of China is established based on the convolutional long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM) algorithm using ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) reanalysis data as the initial field. The data from 2014-2022 are used to train the forecasts of SWH for the next 6 h, 12 h, 18 h and 24 h, and the data from 2023 are used for testing. Sensitivity tests are carried out to optimize the model configuration and evaluate the prediction performance of SWH in the southeast coast of China at four period validity (6 h, 12 h, 18 h, 24 h) in 2023. Sensitivity tests show that when input time series length N=4(input SWH value of -18 h, -12 h, -6 h, 0 h), the accuracies of the model at four period validity are better than those of other time series length. When the combination of input physical elements is SWH, mean wave direction and sea surface 10 m wind vector, the accuracy of the model is better than other combinations at 12 h, 18 h and 24 h. Through the fine-tuning of ConvLSTM model training and configuration, the two-dimensional and high-precision intelligent prediction of SWH in the southeast coast of China can be realized.
coast of China / convolutional long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM) / data-driven / wave / significant wave height (SWH) / two-dimensional prediction model / short-time forecast / artificial intelligence / deep learning
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Learning to store information over extended time intervals by recurrent backpropagation takes a very long time, mostly because of insufficient, decaying error backflow. We briefly review Hochreiter's (1991) analysis of this problem, then address it by introducing a novel, efficient, gradient-based method called long short-term memory (LSTM). Truncating the gradient where this does not do harm, LSTM can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units. Multiplicative gate units learn to open and close access to the constant error flow. LSTM is local in space and time; its computational complexity per time step and weight is O(1). Our experiments with artificial data involve local, distributed, real-valued, and noisy pattern representations. In comparisons with real-time recurrent learning, back propagation through time, recurrent cascade correlation, Elman nets, and neural sequence chunking, LSTM leads to many more successful runs, and learns much faster. LSTM also solves complex, artificial long-time-lag tasks that have never been solved by previous recurrent network algorithms.
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