Discussion on the temporal variation and forecast of the East Asian monsoon

Abstract

Abstract: East Asian monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system.To understand itscharacteristics is crucial for improving the forecast of rain and drought in China and other Asian areas.Basedon the monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) and reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2),seasonal and interannual varia1onsof the East Asian monsoon were discussed with the East Asian Monsoon Index (EAMI) and Multivariable Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis method(MV-EOF). The result shows that East Asian monsoon hasan evident annual cycle,that is,the summer monsoon prevails from May to September with its peak inAugust,while the winter monsoon reaches the maximum in January. The interannual variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(EASMI)is closely related to the precipitation of the East ASian area.A staiSUcalforecast based on Markov Model to forecast the East Asian Monsoon was made and it successfully forecasted the precipitation anomaly in the summer of 1998 three months ahead of time.

Key words: East Asian monsoon, monsoon index, MV-EOF, Markov Model

CLC Number:

P425.4+2

YAN Ying. Discussion on the temporal variation and forecast of the East Asian monsoon[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2012, 30(2): 21-26.

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