Variation of air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pwarm pool area and its relations with the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the oceanic and atmospheric parameters retrieved from the satellite remote-sensing datawith the neural network method,the air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pacific warm poo area were calculated with the advanced method of CORARE 3.0 bulk algorithm. The variation of multiyear averagedfield and climate field as well as the interannual and interdecadal variation of the air-sea heat fluxes wereanalyzed first,and their relations with the onset of the SCS summer monsoon were discussed primarily. Theresults indicate that the air-sea heat fluxes have obvious characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution.The maximum sensible heat flux occurs in the Kuroshio area,while that of the latent heat flux in the NorthEquator Current and the Kuroshio areas. And the distribution of the averaged annual air-sea heat fluxesshows that both the sensible heat flux and latent heat flux in Kuroshio area have maximum value in winter andminimum value in summer, while the latent heat flux in western Pacific warm pool area has maximum value inautumn and winter,minimum value in spring and summer, and the sensible heat flux has the minimum inspring and basically the same values in other seasons.Furthermore,the air-sea heat fluxes have obviousinterannual and interdecadal variations. Both the sensible heat flux and latent heat flux have l6 a period,which is the same as the SCS summer monsoon onset. The correlation analysis shows that there is a closecorrelation between the air-sea heat fluxes in April in the warm pool area and the onset of SCS summermonsoon three years later.And the lag-correlation could be used to predict the onset of SCS summer monsoonand provide scientific basis for the estimation of precipitation in the flood season.Based on these results,amultivariate regression equation was established to predict the onset of the SCS summer monsoon in 2012,which shows that it will be l~2 pentads later than the normal year.

Key words: the western Pacilfic warm pool area, air-sea heat fluxes, onset of South China Sea summermonsoon, forecast

CLC Number:

P732

ZUO Tao, CHEN Jin-nian, WANG Hong-na. Variation of air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pwarm pool area and its relations with the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2012, 30(2): 5-13.

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