Forecast skill of MJO in two coupled models

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2015.04.001

Abstract

Abstract: Using the production of two coupled model from CCCma, and based on the information theory,the predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation including the actual forecast skill and potential predictability and the most predictable compnents of ISV were evaluated.The influence of different average time scale was also discussed. It is found that MJO has skillful forecast up to the lead time around ten days in these two coupled models, similar to the current forecast models.MJO can be forecasted potentially at more than one month of lead time. The actual forecast skill and potential predictability of MJO can be further developed as the averaging time scale increased from daily to ten days, especially the potential predictability increased more significantly. Further analysis found that the MJO signal strength of initial condition is the main factor to influence the forecast skill, if the MJO signal is strong, it has the best skill, vice versa. At last,the most predictable distributions of ISV were analyzed and the methods using such distributions to improve the actual forecast skill of ISV were discussed.

Key words: MJO, forecast skill, potential predictability, the most predictable component

CLC Number:

P456.7

LIU Da, ZHANG Xiang-ming, TANG You-min. Forecast skill of MJO in two coupled models[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2015, 33(4): 1-16.

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