Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea

TAN Yiyang; BAI Yan; LI Teng; ZHENG Xinyu; ZHANG Yinxue; ZHANG Yifan

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

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Journal of Marine Sciences ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4) : 43-57. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea

TAN Yiyang ¹^,²^,³ ,
BAI Yan ¹^,²^,³^,^* ,
LI Teng ²^,³ ,
ZHENG Xinyu ¹^,²^,³ ,
ZHANG Yinxue ⁴ ,
ZHANG Yifan ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species sustaining the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean and is a protected and restricted fishing target. In the context of significant impacts of climate change on the ecological environment of the Southern Ocean, it is urgent to understand the spatio-temporal distribution, change trends, and habitat suitability of Antarctic krill. In this study, based on Antarctic krill presence records and time series satellite and reanalysis data, a Maxent model for habitat suitability in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea were constructed using timing parameters of phytoplankton phenology and sea-ice dynamics, along with related environmental parameters. It was found that timing parameters were more suitable for assessing habitat suitability for Antarctic krill compared to conventional environmental parameters. Using the Maxent model, the data over 20 years on the occurrence time and frequency of Antarctic krill in these two study areas were retrieved, and the mechanisms through the interannual trends of multiple environmental parameters were analyzed. Environmental parameters at the time of krill occurrence showed that the overall chlorophyll a mass concentration in the Cosmonauts Sea was lower than that in the D’Urville Sea, with a shorter ice-free period, lower temperatures, and later krill presence dates primarily composed of larval and young individuals along the coast. From 1997 to 2019, the presence time of krill in the coastal Cosmonauts Sea gradually advanced, and the number of presence days increased, mainly due to earlier onset of algal blooms, while increased chlorophyll a mass concentration provided more abundant overwintering food for krill larvae. In the D’Urville Sea, influenced by warming water, shortened ice-free period, and reduced chlorophyll a mass concentration, mature krill may migrate to a more suitable environment, leading to a decline in annual presence frequency. Based on the constructed habitat suitability model, this study showed the long-term distribution of Antarctic krill occurrence in the Cosmonauts Sea and the D’Urville Sea for the first time, which can help to understand the impact of climate change on the ecological environment in the Southern Ocean, and the planning of conservation areas and fishery management in the Southern Ocean.

Key words

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) / habitat suitability / sea ice concentration / satellite remote sensing / timing parameters / maximum entropy model (Maxent) / Cosmonauts Sea / D’Urville Sea

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TAN Yiyang , BAI Yan , LI Teng , et al . Antarctic krill habitat suitability modeling based on timing parameters and long-term change analysis: A case study in the Cosmonauts Sea and D’Urville Sea[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2024, 42(4): 43-57 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.005

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