台风威马逊入侵南海的路径分析

董航; 姜良红; 章向明; 周磊

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2016.01.001

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海洋学研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1) : 1-7. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2016.01.001

研究论文

台风威马逊入侵南海的路径分析

董航^1,2, 姜良红^1,2, 章向明^1,2, 周磊^*1,2

作者信息 +

Analysis on the track of Typhoon Rammasun into the South China Sea

DONG Hang^1,2, JIANG Liang-hong^1,2, ZHANG Xiang-ming^1,2, ZHOU Lei^*1,2

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文章历史 +

摘要

1409号台风威马逊是自1973年以来登陆华南地区的最强台风,其在登陆前,临岸急剧增强。每年初夏,尽管南海的海洋环境有利于台风的增长,但是由于西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)的引导作用,大部分台风路径会偏离南海。本文分析结果表明,在2014年初夏,副高的位置相对过去几十年的平均位置更偏向西南方,因此,台风威马逊在副高的引导下穿过菲律宾进入南海海域。南海的高温海水为其强度陡增提供了有利条件,威马逊在短短26 h内急剧增长为超强台风。前人研究结果显示,近些年来副高的位置明显向西延伸,如果这种西向延伸的趋势一直保持或者继续,那么在初夏可能会有更多的热带风暴进入南海并且得以加强,华南地区或将面临更多灾难性台风的袭击。

Abstract

Typhoon Rammasun was the strongest typhoon that hit the South China in the past 41 years since 1973. It increased rapidly over the South China Sea (SCS) before the landfall. In early summer, the SCS is warm enough to support the increase of a typhoon in every year. However, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) which steers the trajectories of tropical storms in the western Pacific deviates most tropical storms from the SCS. But, recently, the WPSH experiences a westward extension. Analysis shows that WPSH in early summer of 2014 took a more southward and more westward position than it did in the past several decades. As a result, Typhoon Rammasun was guided into the SCS through Philippine, which was an uncommon tropical storm track in July. In the SCS, Typhoon Rammasun was nourished by the warm ocean and became a super typhoon within only 26 hours. As the implication of this study, if the westward extension of WPSH remains and continues, it is reasonable to expect that more tropical storms enter the warm SCS and get intensified in early summer. Consequently, the South China is likely to be more vulnerable to devastating typhoons.

导出引用

董航, 姜良红, 章向明, 周磊. 台风威马逊入侵南海的路径分析[J]. 海洋学研究. 2016, 34(1): 1-7 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2016.01.001

DONG Hang, JIANG Liang-hong, ZHANG Xiang-ming, ZHOU Lei. Analysis on the track of Typhoon Rammasun into the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2016, 34(1): 1-7 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2016.01.001

中图分类号： P444

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