海洋学研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 73-82.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2023.03.007

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于独立样本的设计波高推算及其应用

刘桂林1(), 房丹1, 宋时春2,*(), 刘泊湖3   

  1. 1.中国海洋大学 工程学院,山东 青岛 266000
    2.青岛军民融合发展集团有限公司,山东 青岛 266100
    3.青岛海大海洋工程技术开发有限公司,山东 青岛 266100
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-27 修回日期:2023-05-05 出版日期:2023-09-15 发布日期:2023-10-24
  • 通讯作者: *宋时春(1988—),女,高级工程师,主要从事海岸防护工程设防标准研究,E-mail: 61306808@qq.com
  • 作者简介:刘桂林(1973—),男,黑龙江省哈尔滨市人,教授,主要从事海岸/海洋工程设计标准研究、海洋工程水动力数值模拟。E-mail: liuguilin73@ouc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(52071306);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MEE050)

Calculation of design wave height and its application base on independent sample

LIU Guilin1(), FANG Dan1, SONG Shichun2,*(), LIU Bohu3   

  1. 1. College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266000, China
    2. Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group Co. Ltd., Qingdao 266100, China
    3. Qingdao Haida Marine Engineering Technological Development Co. Ltd., Qingdao 266100, China
  • Received:2022-10-27 Revised:2023-05-05 Online:2023-09-15 Published:2023-10-24

摘要:

极值样本的选取和分布模型的确定是设计波高推算中的两个关键环节。使用阈值法选取波高过阈样本作为极值样本时,常用标准风暴长度法对超出量序列进行“去聚类”处理,以使样本符合独立性标准。然而标准风暴长度法中的标准风暴长度需要人为选择,增加了取样结果的不确定性。本文提出了一种自动的标准风暴长度估计方法,并基于该方法选取了粤西海域的波高过阈样本。波高过阈样本具有尖峰、厚尾的统计特征,为了更准确地拟合该样本,本文基于组合模型原理构建了一种新的分布模型——Gumbel-Pareto分布模型,并用该模型进行了粤西海域的设计波高推算,结果表明Gumbel-Pareto分布对波高过阈样本的拟合优度比Gumbel分布和广义Pareto分布更高,可以为大型海洋工程设计波高的确定提供参考。

关键词: 独立样本, 标准风暴长度, Gumbel-Pareto分布, 设计波高推算

Abstract:

The selection of extreme value samples and the determination of distribution models are two crucial aspects when calculating the design wave height. When selecting extreme value samples using the peaks over threshold method, the standard storm length method is commonly used to “de-cluster” the exceedances in order to make the samples conform to independence standards. However, the crucial parameter in the standard storm length method needs to be manually selected which increases the uncertainty of samples. In this paper, an automatic standard storm length estimation method is proposed, then the wave height peaks over threshold sample in the western Guangdong sea area is selected based on this method. To accurately fit the sharp peak and heavy tail of the wave height peaks over threshold sample, the combined distribution method is used to construct a new model: Gumbel-Pareto distribution model. Based on this model, the design wave height calculation is carried out in the western Guangdong sea area. The result shows that the goodness of fit for the Gumbel-Pareto distribution model to the wave height peaks over threshold sample is higher than that of Gumbel distribution and Generalized Pareto distribution, which can offer a reasonable reference for the design of large offshore engineering.

Key words: independent samples, standard storm length, Gumbel-Pareto distribution, design wave height calculation

中图分类号: