1993—2021年舟山及邻近东海海平面变化特征分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2025.01.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于1993年1月至2021年12月的卫星高度计数据,利用最小二乘法和集合经验模态分解对舟山及邻近东海海平面的长期变化及其影响因子进行分析。研究发现,研究区海平面整体以上升趋势为主,在舟山群岛东侧海域,上升趋势更为明显;平均线性速率为0.36±0.10 cm/a,2018年起上升趋势有所减缓。研究区海平面变化具有明显的季节差异,其线性速率为秋季最大(0.37±0.12 cm/a),冬季次之,春、夏两季略小(约为0.34±0.10 cm/a)。近30年来的非线性变化趋势显示,夏、秋季的上升速率几乎不变,冬季的上升速率呈减缓态势,春季呈加速上升态势。研究区海平面变化存在年振幅增大的趋势,长期变化与温度引起的海水热膨胀效应以及风应力引起的增-减水效应密切相关。

关键词: 海平面变化, 舟山海域, 东海, 集合经验模态分解算法, 线性趋势, 非线性趋势

Abstract:

Based on the satellite altimeter data from January 1993 to December 2021, the least squares method and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) were used to analyze the long-term changes of the sea level in Zhoushan and the adjacent East China Sea and its influencing factors. The study found that the sea level in the study area was generally on an upward trend, and the upward trend was more obvious in the coastal waters on the east side of the Zhoushan Islands. The average linear rate was 0.36±0.10 cm/a, and the upward trend had been somewhat mitigated since 2018. The sea level in the study area showed obvious seasonal differences. Its linear rate was the largest in autumn (0.37±0.12 cm/a), followed by in winter, and slightly smaller in spring and summer (approximately 0.34±0.10 cm/a). The nonlinear change trend over the past 30 years showed that the upward rates in summer and autumn had almost remained unchanged, the upward rate in winter had shown a slowdown trend, and the upward trend in spring had been accelerating. There was a trend of increasing annual amplitude of the sea level in the study area. The long-term changes of the sea level were closely related to the seawater thermal expansion effect caused by temperature and the water increase-decrease effect caused by changes in wind stress.

Key words: sea level change, Zhoushan sea areas, East China Sea, the ensemble empirical model decomposition, linear trend, nonlinear trend

中图分类号:

P731.23

金杰, 陈宇杰, 姚永衡, 张思远, 胡镇涛, 丁梦蓉, 贾彬. 1993—2021年舟山及邻近东海海平面变化特征分析[J]. 海洋学研究, 2025, 43(1): 69-78.

JIN Jie, CHEN Yujie, YAO Yongheng, ZHANG Siyuan, HU Zhentao, DING Mengrong, JIA Bin. Analysis of the variation characteristics of the sea level in Zhoushan and the adjacent East China Sea from 1993 to 2021[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2025, 43(1): 69-78.

图/表 14

图1 研究区域

Fig.1 Map of study area

图2 1993—2021年舟山及邻近海域多年平均海平面的空间变化

Fig.2 The spatial variation of the multi-year average sea level in Zhoushan and its adjacent sea areas during 1993-2021

图3 1993—2021年各季节多年平均海平面的空间变化

Fig.3 The spatial variation of the multi-year average sea level in each season during 1993-2021

图4 1993—2021年研究区海平面线性上升速率的空间分布

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of the linear rising rate of the sea level in the study area during 1993-2021

图5 1993—2021年海平面各季节平均的线性上升速率空间分布

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of the average linear rising rate of the sea level in each season during 1993-2021

图6 1993—2021年研究区海平面的线性变化趋势 (圆点为海平面年度或季节平均值,直线为线性拟合结果。)

Fig.6 The linear change trend of the sea level in the study area during 1993-2021 (The dots represent the annual or seasonal mean sea level and the dashed lines represent the linear fitting results.)

图7 1993—2021年研究区海平面年平均非线性变化的空间分布

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of nonlinear variation of annual mean sea level in the study area during 1993-2021

图8 1993—2021年研究区海平面春季平均非线性变化的空间分布

Fig.8 The spatial distribution of nonlinear variation of mean sea level in spring in the study area during 1993-2021

图9 1993—2021年研究区海平面秋季平均非线性变化的空间分布

Fig.9 The spatial distribution of nonlinear variation of mean sea level in autumn in the study area during 1993-2021

图10 1993—2021年海平面的非线性变化趋势(a)及其年变化率(b)

Fig.10 Nonlinear trends (a) and its annual change rate (b) of sea level during 1993-2021

图11 1993—2021年气候态年平均海面温度(a)及其线性变化(b)的空间分布

Fig.11 The spatial distribution of climatological annual-mean sea surface temperature (a) and its linear variation (b) during 1993-2021

图12 1993—2021年海面温度的经验正交分解第一(a)和第二模态时间序列(b)

Fig.12 Time series of the first(a) and second principal component (b) for the empirical orthogonal decomposition of sea surface temperature during 1993-2021

图13 1993—2021年多年平均海面风场(a)及其线性变化(b)的空间分布

Fig.13 The spatial distribution of multi-year average sea surface wind (a) and its linear variation (b) during 1993-2021

图14 1993—2021年海面风场的经验正交分解第一(a)和第二模态(b)时间序列

Fig.14 Time series of the first (a) and second principal component (b) for the empirical orthogonal decomposition of sea surface wind during 1993-2021

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