海洋学研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 8-16.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2018.04.002

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

盛夏北极边缘海冰与来年冬季NAO之联系

胡春迪1,2,5,6, 张成扬*4,5,6, 陈大可1,3,6, 杨清华2,5,6   

  1. 1.卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310012;
    2.广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室 &大气科学学院 中山大学,广东 珠海 519000;
    3.自然资源部 第二海洋研究所,浙江 杭州 310012;
    4.广西省气象局 气候中心,广西 南宁 530022;
    5.中国高校极地联合研究中心,北京 100875;
    6.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东 珠海 519000
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-15 修回日期:2018-09-13 出版日期:2018-12-15 发布日期:2022-11-18
  • 通讯作者: * 张成扬(1989-),男,工程师,主要从事气候异常的年际变率及短期气候预测研究。E-mail:zcy58936747@163.com
  • 作者简介:胡春迪(1987-),男,四川荣县人,博士,副教授,主要从事海洋-极冰-大气相互作用研究。E-mail:huchd3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后创新人才支持计划项目资助(BX201600039);中国博士后科学基金项目资助(2018M630646);第二海洋研究所博士后专项项目资助(JB1702);极地咨询项目资助(2018-XZ-12-02);"全球变化与海气相互作用"专项项目资助(GASI-IPOVAI-04)

Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

HU Chun-di1,2,5,6, ZHANG Cheng-yang*4,5,6, CHEN Da-ke1,3,6, YANG Qing-hua2,5,6   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou 310012, China;
    2. Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies & School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519000, China;
    3. Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310012, China;
    4. Climate Center, Guangxi Meteorological Bureau, Nanning 530022, China;
    5. University Corporation for Polar Research, Beijing 100875, China;
    6. Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Guangdong), Zhuhai 519000, China
  • Received:2018-08-15 Revised:2018-09-13 Online:2018-12-15 Published:2022-11-18

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摘要： 许多研究认为,只有北大西洋涛动(NAO)是一种具有物理意义的模态,而北极涛动(AO)则是EOF分解得到的一种统计假象模态。为了从一个新的角度进一步探讨二者的差别,我们运用附条件的最大协方差分析(CMCA)统计了前期北极边缘海冰密集度(MSCI)与来年冬季NAO之间的跨季节遥相关关系,其中的ENSO信号和线性趋势已经在分析之前被去除。统计显著性结果表明:冬季负位相的NAO信号可以追溯到6个月前自盛夏开始至早冬季节北极MSCI异常的逐步演变。然而根据先前的研究,北极海冰异常仅可以超前冬季AO 大概4个月表现出显著信号。这表明盛夏北极MSCI的持续异常对来年冬季NAO的影响比对AO更强,同时也从另一个角度证实了AO与NAO确实存在差异。进一步分析还表明,前期MSCI异常的逐步演变主要与海表面热通量及气温异常有关。此外,我们还重新审视了负位相的NAO对北半球冬季气候异常的影响以及可能的物理机制。

关键词: 海-气相互作用, 北极边缘海冰, 北大西洋涛动 (NAO), 跨季节遥相关

Abstract: Many studies pointed out that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a physically meaningful mode but the Arctic Oscillation (AO) likes a statistical artifact mode from EOF analysis. To further explore their difference from a new perspective, here we applied a conditional maximum covariance analysis (CMCA) to capture the cross-seasonal teleconnection between preceding Arctic marginal sea ice concentration (MSIC) and the following wintertime NAO, from which the ENSO signals and the linear trends were removed. Statistically significant results showed that the dominant Ocean-Atmosphere interaction was the atmospheric effect on the MSIC anomalies, with a peak occurring when atmosphere leading MSCI by 0-1 month. However, the most eye-catching phenomenon was that the wintertime negative NAO could be significantly linked to the gradual evolution of preceding Arctic MSIC anomalies from high-summer to early-winter, with lead-times up to 6 months. However, according to previous studies, Arctic sea ice anomalies could only show significant precursory signals for winter AO about 4 months, suggesting that Arctic MSIC has a stronger impact on the following winter NAO than AO. And it also confirmed that there was a difference between AO and NAO from a new perspective. Further analysis showed that the gradual evolution of changes in Arctic MSIC was mainly driven by sea surface heat fluxes and surface temperature anomalies. Besides, we also re-investigated the effect of negative NAO on the boreal winter climate anomalies and the corresponding possible physical mechanisms.

Key words: Ocean-Atmosphere interaction, Arctic marginal sea ice, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), cross-seasonal teleconnection

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