台风“菲特”期间T639预报风场在东中国海的有效性检验

高占胜

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2015.01.002

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海洋学研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1) : 9-15. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2015.01.002

研究论文

台风“菲特”期间T639预报风场在东中国海的有效性检验

高占胜

作者信息 +

Validation of the T639 wind production in the East China Sea during typhoon “Fitow”

GAO Zhan-sheng

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

海表风场是航海、海洋工程及防灾减灾等都十分关注的海洋要素之一,本文利用来自台湾地区和韩国的风速观测资料,检验了台风“菲特”及一次冷空气过程期间T639风场预报产品在东中国海的有效性。结果表明:(1)台风“菲特”和冷空气期间,预报风速与观测风速在曲线走势上保持了较好的一致性。(2)从相关系数来看,各个观测站的预报风速与观测风速都表现出较为密切的相关性;从偏差来看,预报风速略高于观测风速;从均方根误差和平均绝对误差来看,误差也都在可控范围之内。(3)台风“菲特”期间,T639预报风场对台风眼、台风尾迹等气旋性特征刻画得较为形象,外埔气象站、东吉岛气象站和兰屿气象站受台风影响较为显著,淡水气象站、金门气象站和绿岛气象站受台风的影响则偏弱。T639预报风场对南下的冷空气过程同样有着较好的体现,对风向和风速都有很好的模拟。

Abstract

The sea surface wind speed has a important impact on the navigation, ocean engineering and disaster prevision. In this paper, the observed wind data from Taiwan Island and South Korean was used to verify the validation of the T639 wind production during the typhoon “Fitow” and a cold air process. Results show that: (1) During the typhoon “Fitow”, there is a good consistency between the forecasting wind speed and the observed wind speed. (2) From the correlation coefficient, there is also a close relationship between the forecasting wind speed and the observed wind speed. About the Bias error, the forecasting value is slightly larger than the observed value. Comprehensive consideration of the root mean square error and mean absolute error, the precision of the T639 wind production is high. (3) During the typhoon “Fitow”, the T639 wind production can describe the characteristics of typhoon (including the typhoon eye and typhoon end mark) very well. The Waipu meteorology station, Dongjidao meteorology station and Lanyu meteorology station were effected by the typhoon noticeable but the Danshui meteorology station, Jinmen meteorology station and Lvdao meteorology station. The T639 wind production can also describe the cold air process very well.

导出引用

高占胜. 台风“菲特”期间T639预报风场在东中国海的有效性检验[J]. 海洋学研究. 2015, 33(1): 9-15 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2015.01.002

GAO Zhan-sheng. Validation of the T639 wind production in the East China Sea during typhoon “Fitow”[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2015, 33(1): 9-15 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2015.01.002

中图分类号： P732.4

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