Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

  • HU Chun-di ,
  • ZHANG Cheng-yang ,
  • CHEN Da-ke ,
  • YANG Qing-hua
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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou 310012, China;
    2. Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies & School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519000, China;
    3. Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310012, China;
    4. Climate Center, Guangxi Meteorological Bureau, Nanning 530022, China;
    5. University Corporation for Polar Research, Beijing 100875, China;
    6. Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Guangdong), Zhuhai 519000, China

Received date: 2018-08-15

  Revised date: 2018-09-13

  Online published: 2022-11-18

Abstract

Many studies pointed out that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a physically meaningful mode but the Arctic Oscillation (AO) likes a statistical artifact mode from EOF analysis. To further explore their difference from a new perspective, here we applied a conditional maximum covariance analysis (CMCA) to capture the cross-seasonal teleconnection between preceding Arctic marginal sea ice concentration (MSIC) and the following wintertime NAO, from which the ENSO signals and the linear trends were removed. Statistically significant results showed that the dominant Ocean-Atmosphere interaction was the atmospheric effect on the MSIC anomalies, with a peak occurring when atmosphere leading MSCI by 0-1 month. However, the most eye-catching phenomenon was that the wintertime negative NAO could be significantly linked to the gradual evolution of preceding Arctic MSIC anomalies from high-summer to early-winter, with lead-times up to 6 months. However, according to previous studies, Arctic sea ice anomalies could only show significant precursory signals for winter AO about 4 months, suggesting that Arctic MSIC has a stronger impact on the following winter NAO than AO. And it also confirmed that there was a difference between AO and NAO from a new perspective. Further analysis showed that the gradual evolution of changes in Arctic MSIC was mainly driven by sea surface heat fluxes and surface temperature anomalies. Besides, we also re-investigated the effect of negative NAO on the boreal winter climate anomalies and the corresponding possible physical mechanisms.

Cite this article

HU Chun-di , ZHANG Cheng-yang , CHEN Da-ke , YANG Qing-hua . Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2018 , 36(4) : 8 -16 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2018.04.002

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