Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

HU Chun-di; ZHANG Cheng-yang; CHEN Da-ke; YANG Qing-hua

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2018.04.002

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Journal of Marine Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4) : 8-16. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2018.04.002

Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

HU Chun-di^1,2,5,6, ZHANG Cheng-yang^*4,5,6, CHEN Da-ke^1,3,6, YANG Qing-hua^2,5,6

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Abstract

Many studies pointed out that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a physically meaningful mode but the Arctic Oscillation (AO) likes a statistical artifact mode from EOF analysis. To further explore their difference from a new perspective, here we applied a conditional maximum covariance analysis (CMCA) to capture the cross-seasonal teleconnection between preceding Arctic marginal sea ice concentration (MSIC) and the following wintertime NAO, from which the ENSO signals and the linear trends were removed. Statistically significant results showed that the dominant Ocean-Atmosphere interaction was the atmospheric effect on the MSIC anomalies, with a peak occurring when atmosphere leading MSCI by 0-1 month. However, the most eye-catching phenomenon was that the wintertime negative NAO could be significantly linked to the gradual evolution of preceding Arctic MSIC anomalies from high-summer to early-winter, with lead-times up to 6 months. However, according to previous studies, Arctic sea ice anomalies could only show significant precursory signals for winter AO about 4 months, suggesting that Arctic MSIC has a stronger impact on the following winter NAO than AO. And it also confirmed that there was a difference between AO and NAO from a new perspective. Further analysis showed that the gradual evolution of changes in Arctic MSIC was mainly driven by sea surface heat fluxes and surface temperature anomalies. Besides, we also re-investigated the effect of negative NAO on the boreal winter climate anomalies and the corresponding possible physical mechanisms.

Key words

Ocean-Atmosphere interaction / Arctic marginal sea ice / North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) / cross-seasonal teleconnection

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HU Chun-di, ZHANG Cheng-yang, CHEN Da-ke, YANG Qing-hua. Linking high-summer Arctic marginal sea-ice to the following wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences. 2018, 36(4): 8-16 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2018.04.002

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