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Using the production of two coupled model from CCCma, and based on the information theory,the predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation including the actual forecast skill and potential predictability and the most predictable compnents of ISV were evaluated.The influence of different average time scale was also discussed. It is found that MJO has skillful forecast up to the lead time around ten days in these two coupled models, similar to the current forecast models.MJO can be forecasted potentially at more than one month of lead time. The actual forecast skill and potential predictability of MJO can be further developed as the averaging time scale increased from daily to ten days, especially the potential predictability increased more significantly. Further analysis found that the MJO signal strength of initial condition is the main factor to influence the forecast skill, if the MJO signal is strong, it has the best skill, vice versa. At last,the most predictable distributions of ISV were analyzed and the methods using such distributions to improve the actual forecast skill of ISV were discussed.

The skills of seasonal forecast of East-Asian precipitation, especially for summer seasons were studied. In the perfect model scenario, the potential predictability of East-Asian precipitation in seasonal time scale using signal-to-noise ratio and information-based indices were commented. The most predictable components and corresponding spatial patterns were also derived by PrCA analysis. The results show that the relationship of forecasts and observations displayed by correlation coefficient is characteristic of higher level in ocean region at low latitudes than in land region at high latitudes. While root mean square error skill shows that forecast diverging degree from observations in ocean region is much more than that in land region. Both agree with the current level for forecast. By estimating potential predictability, it shows that the potential predictability exists a spatial variation and it decays from low to high latitude and from ocean to land region. Further analysis of signal and noise components reveals the important role of marine forcing. The skill of seasonal rainfall is quite limited for lacking of apparent marine forcing in the mainland. By projecting the time series of the leading two modes onto the SSTA field, it shows that the forcing of ocean is the main source of potential predictability of East-Asian precipitation prediction in seasonal time scale. Despite the complexity of ENSO, it is clear that it has great influence on East-Asian monsoon, and the teleconnection between East-Asian precipitation prediction and ENSO may reveal the internal relations of them.

A detailed spatial structure of the tidal residual currents (TRCs) in the coastal area off Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces in the East China Sea was simulated by an unstructured grid-volume, three-dimensional, primitive equations ocean model (FVCOM). The simulated TRCs have apparent horizontal 2-D characters. The TRCs were further divided into three regions from north to south according to their velocity and direction, i.e., Region I, Region II and Region III. The TRCs in Region I and Region III are stronger but in opposite direction, flowing along isobaths in the southwestward with a velocity of 0.6~2.5 cm/s and northeastward directions with a velocity of 0.5~1.5 cm/s, respectively. The TRCs in Region II are weaker (less than 0.6 cm/s), and their directions are unticlockwise with the distance away from the coast. The analysis shows that the TRCs are directly proportional to the topographic beta factor ddx1H, this is consistent with the previous studies, and indicates the rectification of tidal currents when they flow over the steep bottom topography.

Using 15 year's TRMM-measured precipitation data, the diurnal variations of non-typhoon and typhoon precipitation in Northwest Pacific were studied. The diurnal signal of non-typhoon precipitation reaches its maximum at 06∶00, with a smaller maximum occurring around 15∶00. The typhoon precipitation within 500 km radius from the typhoon center shows a clear diurnal signal, and reaches its maximum around 03∶00~09∶00, and both of its mean and diurnal variation are larger than those of non-typhoon precipitation. Meanwhile, both the numbers of typhoon intensification and rapid intensification during 03∶00~08∶00 are bigger than other periods. From the satellite images of typhoon ‘HaiShen’, the area of extreme convection cloud is much larger in 06∶00 than in 18∶00, which is consistent with the diurnal variation pattern of precipitation.

Compared with the surrounding seawater, hydrothermal fluid has big differences in both physical and chemical characteristics. Detecting abnormal temperature and turbidity are important means for finding hydrothermal plumes signal. The towing CTD and the turbidity data from leg 20 and the CTD station data from leg 21 of “DaYang Yi Hao” expedition ship were studied. A neutral buoyancy level at the depth of 2 550~2 650 meters with a temperature anomaly about 0.01 degree, and the thickness about 100 meters is found in a hydrothermal field at 49.65°E in the Southwest Indian Ocean. It also shows that temperature anomaly appears at the depth of 2 750~2 800 meters, with the maximum value to 0.08 degree. Accompanied by temperature anomaly, turbidity anomaly also occurres at the same water levels. The potential temperature of background water shows a linear correlation with the potential density in the deep sea. In addition, it is estimated that the initial buoyancy flux is 8.78×10^-4 m⁴/s³, and the estimation value of the hydrothermal area heat flux is about 130±43 MW calculated from the neutral buoyancy level.

Based on the conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data from the compositive survey in the westen Pacific, the distribution characteristics and change regularity of the temperature, salinity, speed of sound and density in the easterly ocean nearby the second island chain in winter have been analysed. Data were processed with average gridding methods by using a software named Ocean Data View (ODV), and the speed of sound and sound velocity gradient were obtained with the speed calculation method of Wilson and vertical gradient methods. Comprehensive analytic results indicate: the temperature are decrease as the depth increase, and the rate of change is obvious above 750 meters; however, the characteristics of vertical structure of salinity and speed of sound values are decrease first, and then increase downward from surface layer, which have different critical depth. There are two thermoclines in the sea area, the upper one is stronger and thinner than the under one.

Clay mineral compositions of 35 samples in core I8 recovered from the West Philippine Basin were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) technique. The results show that the clay mineral assemblages in core I8 consist dominantly of illite (40%), with a lesser abundance of smectite (28%) and chlorite (20%), as well as a low amount of kaolinite (12%), and illite has good crystallinity. The source analysis of clay minerals indicate that the high contents of illite may come from the input of Asian dust, while smectite may be contributed by the nearby ocean bottom volcanoes, and weathering product from Luzon may play the most important role in providing chlorite and kaolinite.

The solvend of abalone or oyster visceral mass was added in the culture media of Isochrysis galbana. The algal cell density, chlorophyll a and carotenoid were measured. The results show that the suitable dilution of visceral mass solvend can accelerate the growth of I. galbana. The solvend of fermented visceral mass has better effect on growth of I. galbana than the solvend of unfermented visceral mass. The 1∶1 000 dilution of fermented oyster visceral mass is the best for the growth of I. galbana, while the 1∶100 dilution of fermented abalone visceral mass is next. Contents of chlorophyll a and carotenoid in the two test groups are lower than those of other groups. The 1∶100 dilution of fermented oyster visceral mass can inhibit the growth of I. galbana.

Virulence characteristics and antimicrobial susceptibility of Vibrio parahaemolyticus(VP), Vibrio alginolyticus(VA) and Aeromonas hydrophila(AH) isolated from the channels and ports in Ningbo and Zhoushan were investigated. The distribution patterns of virulent genes in isolated pathogenic bacteria are found that VP is represented by tlh⁺, toxR⁺, gyrB⁺ and tdh⁺; VA is represented by aspA⁺, tlh⁺, collagenase⁺ and toxS⁺; AH is represented by aerA⁺, alt⁺, aha1⁺ and hlyA⁺. The detection rates of relevant genes in representative strains for these three kinds of bacteria are 57.1%, 40.0%, 50.0%. 24 common kinds of drug resistance rates of representative strains are 4.17%, 8.33% and 29.17% respectively. The results show that harmful characteristics of the pathogenic bacteria are found in Ningbo-Zhoushan, and the right defense measures needed to make to prevent them. Moreover, the correlation of virulence genotypes and pathogenicity of the bacteria show that virulent genes can be chosen as gene-markers to detect pathogenic strains of bacteria.

In order to explore the influence on body weight, relative fatness, hepatosomatic index and body composition under starvation and excessive feeding for juvenile Pampus argenteus, the juveniles (2.61±0.65 g) were fed by starvation and experimental groups. The physical parameters of juveniles, relative fatness, hepatosomatic index and fish essential nutrients were investigated under the conditions of normal feeding group (C), hunger 5 days (S5), starvation 9 days (S9) and the excess feeding group (D). The results are as follows: (1) Compared with the normal feeding group, all indexes of the D group are significantly increased (p<0.05), and weight gain rates (73.89±9.78)% are two times more than those in the normal group, the hepatosomatic index and relative fatness are increased 55.00% and 25.10% respectively. (2) The hepotosomatic index and relative fatness are significantly decreased under starvation stress (p<0.05). After starvation of 5 days and 9 days, the hepotosomatic indexes decreased by 8.75% and 11.25%, and the relative fatness is decreased by 21.18% and 32.16%. (3) Crude fat of starvation juvenile P. argenteus has maximum loss, and it is only 22.10% and 18.10% of the normal group respectively after starvation of 5 days and 9 days. In the meantime, the crude protein losses are only 4.06% and 4.90%. It may explain that starvation juvenile P. argenteus use the fat as the main energy, and the protein and carbohydrates as the subsidiary energy. (4) In the death group resulting from starvation, the relative fatness is no significant difference (p>0.05) in different body length groups, but the rates of weight loss are affected by body length. The loss rates are 22.89% in 2.20~2.80 cm group and increased to 35.79%~40.28% in 2.80~3.40 cm group. The relative fatness is substantially decreased with body length increasing. Body length and hunger resistance ability of juvenile P. argenteus are positively correlated.