使用再分析资料检测西北太平洋热带气旋的一种新型追踪器

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2024.04.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集、欧洲中期天气预报中心的风速数据和海平面气压场数据,本研究基于风应力特征设计了一种简便追踪器用于检测1985—2014年西北太平洋热带气旋,并评估了该追踪器的性能指标。研究结果表明,追踪器能较好重现西北太平洋热带气旋的时空结构特征,热带气旋峰值期集中于8—10月,高频位置随季节南北移动的规律也与观测结果一致。此外,该追踪器使用海平面气压最小值作为划分热带气旋强度标准,识别出的各个强度热带气旋数量也与观测结果基本吻合。追踪器的检出概率和误报概率均表现良好,与前人设计的追踪器效果相当。追踪器检测到的热带气旋中,约有90%的热带气旋中心位置与观测结果的经纬度偏差小于等于1°,生命期偏差小于等于2 d,能较好地反映热带气旋完整的移动演变规律。

关键词: 热带气旋, 追踪器, 风应力, 西北太平洋, 气候模式, 模式偏差

Abstract:

A simple tropical cyclone tracker based on wind stress characteristics was designed in this study, using the best track dataset from the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center, wind speed data and sea level pressure field data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The tracker was used to detect tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific from 1985 to 2014, and its performance metrics were evaluated. The results showed that the tracker was able to accurately reproduce the spatiotemporal structure of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. The peak period of activity was concentrated from August to October, and the latitudinal positions varied with the seasons, consistent with the observations. Additionally, the tracker used the minimum sea level pressure as a criterion for determining cyclone intensity, and the number of cyclones identified at different intensities closely matched the observations. The tracker performed well in terms of probability of detection and false alarm rate for tropical cyclones, comparable to previously used trackers. Regarding the tropical cyclones detected by the tracker, the research findings showed that approximately 90% of the center positions were within a deviation of 1 degree from the observed positions, and the lifetime deviation was within 2 days, indicating a good representation of the complete movement and evolution of tropical cyclones.

Key words: tropical cyclone, tracker, wind stress, Northwest Pacific, climate model, model bias

中图分类号:

P444

谷树韬, 连涛. 使用再分析资料检测西北太平洋热带气旋的一种新型追踪器[J]. 海洋学研究, 2024, 42(4): 34-42.

GU Shutao, LIAN Tao. A novel tracker for detecting tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific using reanalysis data[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2024, 42(4): 34-42.

图/表 7

表1 热带气旋强度分类标准

Tab.1 Standard of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity classification

热带气旋分类	最小海平面气压阈值/hPa
热带风暴	1 005
1级飓风	990
2级飓风	975
3级飓风	960
4级飓风	945
5级飓风	925

图1 1985—2014年最佳路径数据集记录的(a)和追踪器识别的(b)西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹密度分布

Fig.1 The track density distribution of tropical cyclones by IBTrACS (a) and TC tracker (b) in the Northwest Pacific from 1985 to 2014

图2 1985—2014年最佳路径数据集记录的(a)和追踪器识别的(b)西北太平洋热带气旋纬度位置的逐月累计分布频次 (图中蓝色曲线表示1985—2014年西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹的逐月分布中心。)

Fig.2 The cumulative monthly distribution frequency of the latitude positions of tropical cyclones by IBTrACS (a) and TC tracker (b) in the Northwest Pacific from 1985 to 2014 (The blue curve represents the monthly distribution centre of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific from1985 to 2014.)

图3 最佳路径数据集记录的与追踪器识别的根据最小海平面气压划分的各等级热带气旋数量

Fig.3 The number of tropical cyclones in each category based on minimum sea level pressure by IBTrACS and TC tracker

图4 新型热带气旋追踪器与几种常用追踪器的检出概率与误报概率对比

Fig.4 Comparison of probability of detection (POD) and false alarm probability (FAR) among the novel tropical cyclone tracker and several commonly used trackers

图5 新型追踪器检测命中的热带气旋中心位置的纬度偏差(a)和经度偏差(b)

Fig.5 The latitude error (a) and longitude error (b) of the tropical cyclones center positions hit by the novel TC tracker

图6 新型追踪器检测命中的热带气旋生命期偏差

Fig.6 The lifetime error of the tropical cyclones hit by the novel TC tracker

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